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To advance empirical practice, we propose a joint inference procedure for the treatment effect and its local external validity, captured by the treatment effect derivative (TED), within a robust bias correction framework. We further introduce a locally linear treatment effects assumption, which extends the scope of the TED and enables identification and the construction of a uniform confidence band for extrapolated effects. These methods apply to most empirical studies. Empirical illustrations demonstrate their practical usefulness.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.70063","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,19]],"date-time":"2026-05-19T04:10:31Z","timestamp":1779163831000},"page":"627-640","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Joint Inference for the Regression Discontinuity Effect and Its External Validity"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Yuta","family":"Okamoto","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Economics Kyoto University  Kyoto Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-economics-080217-053402"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2015.1012259"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/QE1367"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2019.09.010"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2018.1546590"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20190687"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ectj\/utz022"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/1536867X1701700208"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA11757"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.32614\/RJ-2015-004"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/686802"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2020.1751646"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-economics-051520-021409"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1108\/S0731-905320170000038013"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","unstructured":"Deaner B. andS.Kwon.2025.\u201cExtrapolation in Regression Discontinuity Design Using Comonotonicity.\u201dhttps:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/2507.00289."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2369"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2974"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/REST_a_00510"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","first-page":"3895","volume-title":"Handbook of Development Economics","author":"Duflo E.","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","volume-title":"Local Polynomial Modelling and Its Applications","author":"Fan J.","year":"1996"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2025.106074"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2017.1366909"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/QE1079"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","unstructured":"Ghosh A. 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