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Our framework is built on an analysis of a mean\u2010squared prediction error (MSPE) bound for the counterfactual predicted by a generic SC method, without imposing a specific outcome model. Using this framework, we develop a generalized SC method that provides a more comprehensive regularization of the MSPE bound than several existing SC methods. Through simulation studies and placebo analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting the counterfactual.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.70071","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,28]],"date-time":"2026-05-28T03:52:17Z","timestamp":1779940337000},"page":"761-775","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Regularization of Synthetic Controls for Policy Evaluation"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"41","author":[{"given":"Yi\u2010Ting","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Finance National Taiwan University  Taipei Taiwan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_12_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.20191450"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/jasa.2009.ap08746"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ajps.12116"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/000282803321455188"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2021.1971535"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_7_1","unstructured":"Abadie A. andJ.Vives\u2010i Bastida.2022.\u201cSynthetic Controls in Action.\u201d arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.06279v1."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_8_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Robust Synthetic Control","volume":"19","author":"Amjad M.","year":"2018","journal-title":"Journal of Machine Learning Research"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/aer.20190159"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jep.31.2.3"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2021.1929245"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ectj\/utz001"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2023.2238788"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/ECTA20720"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.2778"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Doudchenko N. andG. W.Imbens.2016.\u201cBalancing Regression Difference\u2010In\u2010Differences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis Working Paper NBER.","DOI":"10.3386\/w22791"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2021.1965613"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3982\/QE1596"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1986.10478354"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CBO9781139025751"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1257\/jel.47.1.5"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.2021.1979562"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_23_1","unstructured":"Mora R. andI.Reggio.2012.\u201cTreatment Effect Identification Using Alternative Parallel Assumptions \u201d Working Paper Universidad Carlos III de Madrid."},{"key":"e_1_2_12_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/07350015.2021.1927743"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0037350"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2022.07.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_12_27_1","volume-title":"Asymptotic Properties of the Synthetic Control Method, Working Paper","author":"Zhang X.","year":"2024"}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.70071","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/jae.70071","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.70071","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,2]],"date-time":"2026-10-02T09:39:55Z","timestamp":1790933995000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.70071"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.70071"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.70071","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,27]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-06-22","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-04-30","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-05-27","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}