{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]],"date-time":"2026-07-09T16:16:36Z","timestamp":1783613796963,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":84,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]],"date-time":"2026-07-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783555200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]],"date-time":"2026-07-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783555200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>We propose a method to identify the anticipated components of macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR. We include empirical forecasts about each time series in the VAR. This introduces enough linear restrictions to identify every structural shock and to further decompose each one into \u201cnews\u201d and \u201csurprise\u201d shocks. We estimate a VAR on U.S. time series using forecast data from the SPF, CBO, Federal Reserve, and asset prices. Unanticipated fiscal stimulus and monetary policy shocks have typical effects that match existing evidence. In our news\u2010surprise decomposition, we find that news drives around one quarter of U.S. business cycle volatility. News explains a larger share of the variance due to fiscal shocks than for monetary policy shocks. Finally, we use the news structure of the shocks to estimate counterfactual policy rules, and compare the ability of fiscal and monetary policy to moderate output and inflation. We find that coordinated fiscal and monetary policy are substantially more effective than either individually.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.70081","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]],"date-time":"2026-07-09T15:53:57Z","timestamp":1783612437000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Identifying News Shocks From Forecasts"],"prefix":"10.1002","author":[{"given":"Jonathan J.","family":"Adams","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City  Kansas City MO USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Philip","family":"Barrett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Western Hemisphere Department International Monetary Fund  Washington DC USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,9]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","volume-title":"The Perceived Causes of Monetary Policy Surprises","author":"Acosta M.","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.red.2024.101234"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Adams J. 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