{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,17]],"date-time":"2026-06-17T14:10:13Z","timestamp":1781705413330,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":29,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2004,3,12]],"date-time":"2004-03-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1079049600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":11,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["J of Applied Econometrics"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2004,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In this paper we describe methods for predicting distributions of outcome gains in the framework of a latent variable selection model. We describe such procedures for Student\u2010<jats:italic>t<\/jats:italic> selection models and a finite mixture of Gaussian selection models. Importantly, our algorithms for fitting these models are simple to implement in practice, and also permit learning to take place about the non\u2010identified cross\u2010regime correlation parameter. Using data from High School and Beyond, we apply our methods to determine the impact of dropping out of high school on a math test score taken at the senior year of high school. Our results show that selection bias is an important feature of this data, that our beliefs about this non\u2010identified correlation are updated from the data, and that generalized models of selectivity offer an improvement over the \u2018textbook\u2019 Gaussian model. Further, our results indicate that on average dropping out of high school has a large negative impact on senior\u2010year test scores. However, for those individuals who actually drop out of high school, the act of dropping out of high school does not have a significantly negative impact on test scores. This suggests that policies aimed at keeping students in school may not be as beneficial as first thought, since those individuals who must be induced to stay in school are not the ones who benefit significantly (in terms of test scores) from staying in school. Copyright \u00a9 2004 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.731","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2004,4,2]],"date-time":"2004-04-02T08:02:16Z","timestamp":1080892936000},"page":"203-225","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Do dropouts suffer from dropping out? Estimation and prediction of outcome gains in generalized selection models"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"19","author":[{"given":"Mingliang","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dale J.","family":"Poirier","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Justin L.","family":"Tobias","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2004,3,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1993.10476321"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/1937899"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/3315430"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(99)00065-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(02)00122-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","unstructured":"DehejiaR.1999.Program evaluation as a decision problems. NBER working paper # 6954. AlsoJournal of Econometrics Forthcoming."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1999.10473858"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jae.3950080504"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","first-page":"475","article-title":"The common structure of statistical models of truncation, sample selection, and limited dependent variables and a simple estimator for such models","volume":"5","author":"Heckman J","year":"1976","journal-title":"Annals of Economic and Social Measurement"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","first-page":"313","article-title":"Varieties of selection bias","volume":"90","author":"Heckman J","year":"1990","journal-title":"American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1121","DOI":"10.2307\/2938303","article-title":"The empirical content of the Roy model","volume":"50","author":"Heckman J","year":"1990","journal-title":"Econometrica"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CCOL0521633230.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.96.8.4730"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0165-1765(99)00181-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2971729"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2999630"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/003465303322369867"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2951620"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(96)00009-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","first-page":"319","article-title":"Nonparametric bounds on treatment effects","volume":"80","author":"Manski C","year":"1990","journal-title":"American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/CCOL0521444594.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/0471721182"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0304-4076(00)00035-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","volume-title":"Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics: A Comparative Approach","author":"Poirier DJ","year":"1995"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0266466698144043"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/073500103288618945"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.oep.a041827"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0304-4076(93)90059-E"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","unstructured":"VytlacilE.2000.Semiparametric identification of the average treatment effect in nonseparable models. Unpublished manuscript Stanford University."}],"container-title":["Journal of Applied Econometrics"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjae.731","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jae.731","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,18]],"date-time":"2023-10-18T04:17:10Z","timestamp":1697602630000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jae.731"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2004,3]]},"references-count":29,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2004,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jae.731"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jae.731","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0883-7252","1099-1255"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0883-7252","type":"print"},{"value":"1099-1255","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2004,3]]}}}