{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,28]],"date-time":"2026-08-28T04:59:02Z","timestamp":1787893142819,"version":"build-2784847793"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"Oxford University Press (OUP)","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,4,5]],"date-time":"2023-04-05T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1680652800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["asbmr.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["JBMR Plus"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Hip fractures are common in patients of advanced age and are associated with excess mortality. Rapid and accurate prediction of the prognosis using information that can be easily obtained before surgery would be advantageous to clinical management. We performed a population\u2010based retrospective cohort study using an 8.5\u2010year Japanese claims database (April 2012\u2013September 2020) to develop and validate a predictive model for long\u2010term mortality after hip fracture. The study included 43,529 patients (34,499 [79.3%] women) aged \u226565\u2009years with first\u2010onset hip fracture. During the observation period, 43% of the patients died. Cox regression analysis identified the following prognostic predictors: sex, age, fracture site, nursing care certification, and several comorbidities (any malignancy, renal disease, congestive heart failure, chronic pulmonary disease, liver disease, metastatic solid tumor, and deficiency anemia). We then developed a scoring system called the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (SHiPS); this system was established by scoring based on each hazard ratio and classifying the degree of mortality risk into four categories based on decision tree analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) (95% confidence interval [CI]) of 1\u2010year, 3\u2010year, and 5\u2010year mortality based on the SHiPS was 0.718 (95% CI, 0.706\u20130.729), 0.736 (95% CI, 0.728\u20130.745), and 0.758 (95% CI, 0.747\u20130.769), respectively, indicating good predictive performance of the SHiPS for as long as 5\u2009years after fracture onset. Even when the SHiPS was individually applied to patients with or without surgery after fracture, the prediction performance by the AUC was &gt;0.7. These results indicate that the SHiPS can predict long\u2010term mortality using preoperative information regardless of whether surgery is performed after hip fracture.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jbm4.10743","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,3,24]],"date-time":"2023-03-24T00:50:00Z","timestamp":1679619000000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Use of the Shizuoka Hip Fracture Prognostic Score (\n                    <scp>SHiPS<\/scp>\n                    ) to Predict Long\u2010Term Mortality in Patients With Hip Fracture in Japan: A Cohort Study Using the Shizuoka Kokuho Database"],"prefix":"10.1093","volume":"7","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8862-877X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Emi","family":"Ohata","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Public Health Shizuoka Graduate University of Public Health  Shizuoka Japan"},{"name":"4DIN Ltd  Tokyo Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4876-446X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Eiji","family":"Nakatani","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Public Health Shizuoka Graduate University of Public Health  Shizuoka Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hideaki","family":"Kaneda","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Translational Research Center for Medical Innovation, Foundation for Biomedical Research and Innovation at Kobe  Kobe Japan"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yoh","family":"Fujimoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Graduate School of Public Health Shizuoka Graduate University of Public Health  Shizuoka Japan"},{"name":"Department of Pediatric Orthopedics Shizuoka Children's Hospital  Shizuoka 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