{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,17]],"date-time":"2026-08-17T10:55:56Z","timestamp":1786964156386,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":30,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767830400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,8]],"date-time":"2026-01-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767830400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Hepato Biliary Pancreat"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background\/Aim<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Accurate prediction of pancreatic necrosis remains critical in acute pancreatitis. This study aimed to identify early predictors of necrosis and externally validate the previously derived Necrosis Development Score\u201048 (NDS\u201048).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This prospective cohort study included patients with edematous acute pancreatitis confirmed by contrast\u2010enhanced CT. Patients were followed for 3\u20136\u2009months to monitor necrosis development, and associated factors were identified. The predictive performance of NDS\u201048 was evaluated, and cumulative probabilities by risk category were estimated using Kaplan\u2013Meier analyses. Sensitivity analyses assessed the robustness of the findings.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Necrosis developed in 39 (15.9%) of 246 patients during follow\u2010up. Of these, 27 (69.2%) had walled\u2010off necrosis and 11 (28.2%) had infected pancreatic necrosis. White blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase, C\u2010reactive protein, and albumin at 48\u2009h were significant predictors, forming the basis of the modified NDS\u201048. The area under the curve for NDS\u201048 and modified NDS\u201048 was 0.947 (95% CI, 0.918\u20130.976) and 0.965 (0.942\u20130.988), respectively. Necrosis occurred in only one low\u2010risk patient, while over three\u2010quarters of high\u2010risk patients developed necrosis. Sensitivity analyses yielded similar results.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>NDS\u201048 and its modified version demonstrated excellent diagnostic accuracy for predicting necrosis and allow early risk stratification in patients with edematous acute pancreatitis.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/jhbp.70057","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,9]],"date-time":"2026-01-09T07:30:55Z","timestamp":1767943855000},"page":"406-417","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Early Predictors of Necrosis in Patients Presenting With Edematous Acute Pancreatitis: Prospective Validation of the Necrosis Development Score\u201048 (\n                    <scp>NDS<\/scp>\n                    \u201048)"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"33","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8469-0907","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fatih","family":"Acehan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology Ankara University Medical School  Ankara Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cagdas","family":"Kalkan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Gastroenterology Gazi University Medical School  Ankara Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4126-809X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yusufcan","family":"Yilmaz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Ankara City Hospital  Ankara Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4977-9919","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mustafa","family":"Comoglu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Ankara City Hospital  Ankara Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fatih Mehmet","family":"Kayserili","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiology Ankara City Hospital  Ankara Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-6338-3964","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"B\u00fc\u015fra","family":"Hayat","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiology Ankara City Hospital  Ankara Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kamil","family":"Enli","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine Ankara City Hospital  Ankara 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