{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,11]],"date-time":"2026-09-11T18:07:41Z","timestamp":1789150061371,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":36,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,23]],"date-time":"2018-01-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1516665600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":22,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004421","name":"World Bank Group","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004421","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000925","name":"National Health and Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["APP1086540"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APP1086540"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000925","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Intern AIDS Soc"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title><jats:p>In 2014, city leaders from around the world endorsed the Paris Declaration on Fast\u2010Track Cities, pledging to achieve the 2020 and 2030<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HIV<\/jats:styled-content>targets championed by<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">UNAIDS<\/jats:styled-content>. The City of Johannesburg \u2013 one of South Africa's metropolitan municipalities and also a health district \u2013 has over 600,000 people living with<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HIV<\/jats:styled-content>(<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PLHIV<\/jats:styled-content>), more than any other city worldwide. We estimate what it would take in terms of programmatic targets and costs for the City of Johannesburg to meet the Fast\u2010Track targets, and demonstrate the impact that this would have.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>We applied the Optima<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HIV<\/jats:styled-content>epidemic and resource allocation model to demographic, epidemiological and behavioural data on 26 sub\u2010populations in Johannesburg. We used data on programme costs and coverage to produce baseline projections. We calculated how many people must be diagnosed, put onto treatment and maintained with viral suppression to achieve the 2020 and 2030 targets. We also estimated how treatment needs \u2013 and therefore fiscal commitments \u2013 could be reduced if the treatment targets are combined with primary<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">HIV<\/jats:styled-content>prevention interventions (voluntary medical male circumcision (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">VMMC<\/jats:styled-content>), an expanded condom programme, and comprehensive packages for female sex workers (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">FSW<\/jats:styled-content>) and young females).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>If current programmatic coverage were maintained, Johannesburg could expect 303,000 new infections and 96,000<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">AIDS<\/jats:styled-content>\u2010related deaths between 2017 and 2030 and 769,000<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">PLHIV<\/jats:styled-content>by 2030. Achieving the Fast\u2010Track targets would require an additional 135,000 diagnoses and 232,000 people on treatment by 2020 (an increase in around 80% over 2016 treatment numbers), but would avert 176,000 infections and 56,500 deaths by 2030. Assuming stable<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ART<\/jats:styled-content>unit costs, this would require<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">ZAR<\/jats:styled-content>29 billion (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">USD<\/jats:styled-content>2.15 billion) in cumulative treatment investments over the 14\u00a0years to 2030. Plausible scale\u2010ups of other proven interventions (<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">VMMC<\/jats:styled-content>, condom distribution and<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">FSW<\/jats:styled-content>strategies) could yield additional reductions in new infections (between 4 and 15%), and in overall treatment investment needs. Scaling up<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">VMMC<\/jats:styled-content>in line with national targets is found to be cost\u2010effective in the medium term.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The scale\u2010up in testing and treatment programmes over this decade has been rapid, but these efforts must be doubled to reach 2020 targets. Strategic investments in proven interventions will help Johannesburg achieve the treatment targets and be on track to end<jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\">AIDS<\/jats:styled-content>by 2030.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/jia2.25068","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,23]],"date-time":"2018-01-23T09:12:44Z","timestamp":1516698764000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":13,"title":["The City of Johannesburg can end<scp>AIDS<\/scp>by 2030: modelling the impact of achieving the Fast\u2010Track targets and what it will take to get there"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"21","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5482-9584","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Robyn M","family":"Stuart","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematical Sciences University of Copenhagen Copenhagen Denmark"},{"name":"Burnet Institute Melbourne Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicole","family":"Fraser\u2010Hurt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The World Bank Washington DC USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Cliff C","family":"Kerr","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Burnet Institute Melbourne Australia"},{"name":"School of Physics University of Sydney Sydney Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Emily","family":"Mabusela","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Gauteng Province Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vusi","family":"Madi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Gauteng Province Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Fredrika","family":"Mkhwanazi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Health Johannesburg Health District Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yogan","family":"Pillay","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Department of Health Pretoria South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Peter","family":"Barron","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Public Health University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Batanayi","family":"Muzah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Department of Health Pretoria South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Thulani","family":"Matsebula","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The World Bank Washington DC USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marelize","family":"Gorgens","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The World Bank Washington DC USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David P","family":"Wilson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Burnet Institute Melbourne Australia"},{"name":"Monash University Melbourne Australia"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","unstructured":"UNAIDS.Fast\u2010Track Cities: Ending the AIDS epidemic.2014."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","unstructured":"UNAIDS.On the Fast\u2010Track to end AIDS.2016."},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","unstructured":"About the Fast\u2010Track Cities Initiative.2016. 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