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Intern. AIDS Soc."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Introduction<\/jats:title><jats:p>Some observational data suggest that the progestogen injectable contraceptive depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) may increase a woman\u2019s risk of HIV acquisition but a randomized clinical trial did not find a statistically significant increase in HIV risk for women using DMPA compared to two other methods. However, it could not rule out up to 30% increased HIV risk for DMPA users. We evaluate changes to contraceptive method mix in South Africa under different assumptions about the existence and strength of a possible undetected relationship between DMPA use and HIV risk.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>A mathematical model was developed to simulate the ongoing HIV epidemic and contraceptive method mix in South Africa to estimate how changes in method mix could impact HIV\u2010 and reproductive health\u2010related outcomes. We made different assumptions about the relationship between DMPA use and HIV risk, from no relationship to a 30% increase in HIV risk for women using DMPA. Scenario analyses were used to investigate the impact of switching away from DMPA predominance to new patterns of contraceptive use.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In South Africa, the HIV\u2010related benefits of reduced DMPA use could be as great as the harms of increased adverse reproductive health outcomes over 20\u00a0years, if DMPA did increase the risk of HIV acquisition by a relative hazard of infection of 1.1 or greater. A reduction in DMPA use among HIV\u2010positive women would have no benefit in terms of HIV infections, but would incur additional negative reproductive health outcomes. The most important driver of adverse reproductive health outcomes is the proportion of women who switch away from DMPA to no contraceptive method.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>If there is any real increased HIV risk for DMPA users that has not been detected by the recent randomized trial, a reduction in DMPA use could reduce the ongoing number of new HIV infections. However, such a change would place more women at risk of adverse reproductive health effects. It is imperative that these effects are minimized by focusing on expanding access to safe, effective and acceptable alternative contraceptive methods for all women.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/jia2.25620","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,8]],"date-time":"2020-10-08T11:59:48Z","timestamp":1602158388000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Responding to the ECHO trial results: modelling the potential impact of changing contraceptive method mix on HIV and reproductive health in South Africa"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"23","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8809-8553","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Jennifer A","family":"Smith","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology Imperial College London London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Leo","family":"Beacroft","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology Imperial College London London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Fareed","family":"Abdullah","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Office of AIDS and TB Research South African Medical Research Council Pretoria South Africa"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Buyile","family":"Buthelezi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"USAID Pretoria South Africa"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Manala","family":"Makua","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Department of Health Pretoria South Africa"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Chelsea","family":"Morroni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Botswana Harvard AIDS Institute Gaborone Botswana"},{"name":"Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine Liverpool United Kingdom"},{"name":"University of Cape Town Cape Town South Africa"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gita","family":"Ramjee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Aurum Institute Parktown South Africa"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Claudia","family":"Velasquez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"UNAIDS Eastern and Southern Africa Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Timothy B.","family":"Hallett","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology Imperial College London London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,10,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)60609-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"29978","DOI":"10.3402\/gha.v8.29978","article-title":"Family planning as a critical component of sustainable global development","volume":"8","author":"Osotimehin B","year":"2015","journal-title":"Global Health Action"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(12)60478-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1728-4465.2009.00203.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjsrh-2019-200509"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)31288-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","unstructured":"WHO.WHO updates recommendations for contraceptive eligibility for women at high risk of HIV.2019[cited 2019 18th November]; Available from:https:\/\/www.who.int\/reproductivehealth\/contraceptive\u2010eligibility\u2010women\u2010at\u2010high\u2010risk\u2010of\u2010HIV\/en\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jia2.25414"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"l5768","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.l5768","article-title":"Depot contraception and HIV: an exercise in obfuscation","volume":"367","author":"Sathyamala C","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"issue":"10222","key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(19)33111-3","article-title":"ECHO: context and limitations","volume":"395","author":"Jewell BL","year":"2020","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/aid.2019.0228"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","unstructured":"ECHO Consortium.The Evidence for Contraceptive Options and HIV Outcomes (ECHO) trial: primary results in SA AIDS Conference. 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