{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,12]],"date-time":"2026-11-12T15:50:41Z","timestamp":1794498641383,"version":"4.9.1"},"reference-count":55,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,16]],"date-time":"2017-11-16T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1510790400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NIH P50\u2010AR060752"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NIH P50\u2010AR060752"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000002","name":"National Institutes of Health","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["NIH R01\u2010AR064771"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["NIH R01\u2010AR064771"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000002","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Magnetic Resonance Imaging"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Background<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Osteoarthritis (OA), a multifactorial disease causing joint degeneration, often leads to severe disability. The rising rates of disability highlight the need for implementing preventative measures at early stages of the disease, which would especially benefit subjects at high risk for OA development.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>To develop a risk prediction tool for moderate\u2010severe OA (TOARP) over 8 years based on subject characteristics, knee radiographs, and MRI data at baseline using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI).<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Study Type<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Retrospective.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Subjects<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>641 subjects with no\/mild radiographic OA (Kellgren\u2013Lawrence [KL] 0\u20132) and no clinically significant symptoms (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index [WOMAC] 0\u20131) were selected from the OAI.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Field Strength\/Sequence<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>MR images were obtained using 3.0T.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Assessment<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Compartment\u2010specific cartilage and meniscus morphology and cartilage T\n                      <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                      were assessed. Baseline subject demographics, risk factors, KL score, cartilage WORMS score, presence of meniscus tear, and cartilage T\n                      <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                      were used to predict the development of moderate\/severe OA (KL = 3\u20134 or WOMAC pain \u22655 or total knee replacement [TKR]) over 8 years.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Statistical Tests<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Best subsets variable selection followed by cross\u2010validation were used to assess which combinations of variables best predict moderate\/severe OA.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Model 1 included KL score, previous knee injury in the last 12 months, age, gender, and BMI. Model 2 included all variables in Model 1 plus presence of cartilage defects in the lateral femur and patella, and presence of a meniscal tear. Model 3 included all variables in Models 1 and 2, plus cartilage T\n                      <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                      in the medial tibia and medial femur. Compared to Model 1 (cross\u2010validated AUC = 0.67), Model 3 performed significantly better (AUC = 0.72,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      = 0.04), while Model 2 showed a statistical trend (AUC = 0.71,\n                      <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\n                      = 0.08).\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Data Conclusion<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      We established a risk calculator for the development of moderate\/severe knee OA over 8 years that includes radiographic and MRI data. The inclusion of MRI\u2010based morphological abnormalities and cartilage T\n                      <jats:sub>2<\/jats:sub>\n                      significantly improved model performance.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      <jats:bold>Level of Evidence:<\/jats:bold>\n                      2\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      <jats:bold>Technical Efficacy:<\/jats:bold>\n                      Stage 3\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                    <jats:p>J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2018;47:1517\u20131526.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmri.25892","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,11,16]],"date-time":"2017-11-16T01:52:39Z","timestamp":1510797159000},"page":"1517-1526","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":63,"title":["Tool for osteoarthritis risk prediction (TOARP) over 8 years using baseline clinical data, X\u2010ray, and MRI: Data from the osteoarthritis initiative"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"47","author":[{"given":"Gabby B.","family":"Joseph","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging University of California San Francisco California USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Charles E.","family":"McCulloch","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics University of California San Francisco California 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