{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,30]],"date-time":"2025-10-30T07:13:25Z","timestamp":1761808405772,"version":"3.37.3"},"reference-count":12,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,22]],"date-time":"2021-01-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1611273600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100002857","name":"China Pharmaceutical University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["3150120001"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["3150120001"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100002857","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID\u201019) outbreak caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS\u2010CoV\u20102) began in December 2019 and was basically under control in April 2020 in Wuhan. To explore the impact of intervention measures on the COVID\u201019 epidemic, we established susceptible\u2013exposed\u2013infectious\u2013recovered (SEIR) models to predict the epidemic characteristics of COVID\u201019 at four different phases (beginning, outbreak, recession, and plateau) from January 1st to March 30th, 2020. We found that the infection rate rapidly grew up to 0.3647 at Phase II from 0.1100 at Phase I and went down to 0.0600 and 0.0006 at Phase III and IV, respectively. The reproduction numbers of COVID\u201019 were 10.7843, 13.8144, 1.4815, and 0.0137 at Phase I, II, III, and IV, respectively. These results suggest that intensive interventions, including compulsory home isolation and rapid improvement of medical resources, can effectively reduce the COVID\u201019 transmission. Furthermore, the predicted COVID\u201019 epidemic trend by our models was close to the actual epidemic trend in Wuhan. Our phase\u2010based SEIR models demonstrate that intensive intervention measures can effectively control COVID\u201019 spread even without specific medicines and vaccines against this disease.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.26781","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,13]],"date-time":"2021-01-13T04:48:09Z","timestamp":1610513289000},"page":"2493-2498","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Retrospective prediction of the epidemic trend of COVID\u201019 in Wuhan at four phases"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"93","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6856-6463","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mengyuan","family":"Li","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Biomedical Informatics Research Lab, School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy China Pharmaceutical University Nanjing China"},{"name":"Big Data Research Institute China Pharmaceutical University Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Xiaonan","family":"Guo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Global Public Health Karolinska Institute Stockholm Sweden"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7199-7093","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiaosheng","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Biomedical Informatics Research Lab, School of Basic Medicine and Clinical Pharmacy China Pharmaceutical University Nanjing China"},{"name":"Big Data Research Institute China Pharmaceutical University Nanjing China"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/cid\/ciaa390"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","first-page":"3","article-title":"The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID\u201019 outbreak in China","volume":"27","author":"Lauau H","year":"2020","journal-title":"J Travel Med"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(20)30260-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","article-title":"Novel coronavirus 2019\u2010nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions","author":"Read J","year":"2020","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","article-title":"Time\u2010varying transmission dynamics of novel coronavirus pneumonia in China","author":"Liu T","year":"2020","journal-title":"bioRxiv"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.21037\/jtd.2020.02.64"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1176062"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00178324"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e3181f20977"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/all.14238"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.21037\/jtd.2020.02.64"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0308518X20916764"}],"container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jmv.26781","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/jmv.26781","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jmv.26781","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,16]],"date-time":"2024-07-16T10:02:17Z","timestamp":1721124137000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jmv.26781"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,22]]},"references-count":12,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jmv.26781"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jmv.26781","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0146-6615","1096-9071"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0146-6615"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1096-9071"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2021,1,22]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-10-16","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-01-05","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2021-01-22","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}