{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,3]],"date-time":"2026-07-03T22:07:21Z","timestamp":1783116441758,"version":"3.54.6"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,10]],"date-time":"2021-08-10T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1628553600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Scores to identify patients at high risk of progression of coronavirus disease (COVID\u201019), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS\u2010CoV\u20102), may become instrumental for clinical decision\u2010making and patient management. We used patient data from the multicentre Lean European Open Survey on SARS\u2010CoV\u20102\u2010Infected Patients (LEOSS) and applied variable selection to develop a simplified scoring system to identify patients at increased risk of critical illness or death. A total of 1946 patients who tested positive for SARS\u2010CoV\u20102 were included in the initial analysis and assigned to derivation and validation cohorts (\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u20091297 and\n                    <jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\n                    \u2009=\u2009649, respectively). Stability selection from over 100 baseline predictors for the combined endpoint of progression to the critical phase or COVID\u201019\u2010related death enabled the development of a simplified score consisting of five predictors: C\u2010reactive protein (CRP), age, clinical disease phase (uncomplicated vs. complicated), serum urea, and D\u2010dimer (abbreviated as CAPS\u2010D score). This score yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77\u20130.85) in the validation cohort for predicting the combined endpoint within 7 days of diagnosis and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77\u20130.85) during full follow\u2010up. We used an additional prospective cohort of 682 patients, diagnosed largely after the \u201cfirst wave\u201d of the pandemic to validate the predictive accuracy of the score and observed similar results (AUC for the event within 7 days: 0.83 [95% CI: 0.78\u20130.87]; for full follow\u2010up: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.78\u20130.86]). An easily applicable score to calculate the risk of COVID\u201019 progression to critical illness or death was thus established and validated.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.27252","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,7,31]],"date-time":"2021-07-31T10:18:26Z","timestamp":1627726706000},"page":"6703-6713","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":8,"title":["Development and validation of a simplified risk score for the prediction of critical COVID\u201019 illness in newly diagnosed patients"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"93","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9130-0057","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stanislas","family":"Werfel","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Nephrology, School of Medicine Technical University of Munich, Klinikum rechts der Isar Munich Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carolin E. M.","family":"Jakob","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department I for Internal Medicine University Hospital of Cologne, University of Cologne Cologne Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn\u2010Cologne Cologne Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Stefan","family":"Borgmann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases and Infection Control Ingolstadt Hospital Ingolstadt Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jochen","family":"Schneider","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine II, School of Medicine Technical University of Munich, University Hospital rechts der Isar Munich Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Munich Munich Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-3875-5367","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christoph","family":"Spinner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine II, School of Medicine Technical University of Munich, University Hospital rechts der Isar Munich Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Munich Munich Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maximilian","family":"Schons","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department I for Internal Medicine University Hospital of Cologne, University of Cologne Cologne Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Martin","family":"Hower","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pneumology, Infectious Diseases and Internal Medicine Klinikum Dortmund gGmbH Dortmund Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kai","family":"Wille","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University Clinic for Haematology, Oncology, Haemostaseology and Palliative Care, Johannes Wesling Medical Centre Minden UKRUB University of Bochum Minden Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Martina","family":"Haselberger","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine I Klinikum Passau Passau Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hanno","family":"Heuzeroth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Emergency and Intensive Care Medicine Klinikum Ernst von Bergmann Potsdam Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Maria M.","family":"R\u00fcthrich","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine II, Hematology and Medical Oncology University Hospital Jena Jena Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5549-1706","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sebastian","family":"Dolff","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases University Hospital Essen, University Duisburg\u2010Essen Essen Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Johanna","family":"Kessel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Hematology and Oncology Goethe University Frankfurt Frankfurt Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Uwe","family":"Heemann","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Nephrology, School of Medicine Technical University of Munich, Klinikum rechts der Isar Munich Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"J\u00f6rg J.","family":"Vehreschild","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department I for Internal Medicine University Hospital of Cologne, University of Cologne Cologne Germany"},{"name":"German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Partner Site Bonn\u2010Cologne Cologne Germany"},{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Hematology and Oncology Goethe University Frankfurt Frankfurt Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Siegbert","family":"Rieg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine II University of Freiburg Freiburg Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Christoph","family":"Schmaderer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Nephrology, School of Medicine Technical University of Munich, Klinikum rechts der Isar Munich Germany"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"name":"the LEOSS study 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