{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,18]],"date-time":"2026-07-18T09:25:58Z","timestamp":1784366758380,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":19,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,21]],"date-time":"2022-02-21T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1645401600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100011480","name":"Foshan University","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100011480","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>Many people want to know when the COVID\u201019 pandemic will end and life will return to normal. This question is highly elusive and distinct predictions have been proposed. In this study, the global mortality and case fatality rate of COVID\u201019 were analyzed using nonlinear regression. The analysis showed that the COVID\u201019 pandemic could terminate in 2022, but COVID\u201019 could be one or two times more deadly than seasonal influenza by 2023. The prediction considered the possibility of the emergence of new variants of SARS\u2010CoV\u20102 and was supported by the features of the Omicron variant and other facts. As\u00a0the herd immunity against COVID\u201019 established through natural infections and mass vaccination is distinct among countries, COVID\u201019 could be more or less deadly in some countries in the coming years than the prediction. Although the future of COVID\u201019 will have multiple possibilities, this statistics\u2010based prediction could aid to make proper decisions and establish an example on the prediction of infectious diseases.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.27661","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,12]],"date-time":"2022-02-12T07:23:14Z","timestamp":1644650594000},"page":"2845-2848","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":47,"title":["Novel statistics predict the COVID\u201019 pandemic could terminate in 2022"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"94","author":[{"given":"Ji\u2010Ming","family":"Chen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Life Science and Engineering Foshan University Foshan China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,2,21]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. Coronavirus disease (COVID\u201019) weekly epidemiological update and weekly operational update2022. 2022. Accessed on January 26 2022.https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/diseases\/novel-coronavirus-2019\/situation-reports"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. WHO Coronavirus (COVID\u201019) Dashboard2022. 2022. Accessed on January 27 2022.https:\/\/covid19.who.int\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","unstructured":"Department of Economic and Social Affairs Economic Analysis of United Nations. The long\u2010term impact of COVID\u201019 on poverty. 2020. Accessed on January 26 2022.https:\/\/www.un.org\/development\/desa\/dpad\/publication\/un-desa-policy-brief-86-the-long-term-impact-of-covid-19-on-poverty\/"},{"issue":"22","key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","first-page":"S0140","article-title":"COVID\u201019 will continue but the end of the pandemic is near","volume":"399","author":"Murray CJL","year":"2022","journal-title":"Lancet"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization. WHO Director\u2010General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID\u201019. January 18 2022. Accessed on January 26 2022.https:\/\/www.who.int\/director-general\/speeches\/detail\/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19-18-january-2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","unstructured":"DavisA. COVID\u201019: when do experts predict life will return to normal? 2021.\u00a0Accessed on January 26 2022.https:\/\/patient.info\/news-and-features\/covid-19-when-do-experts-predict-life-will-return-to-normal"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ssqu.13008"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0140-6736(17)33293-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Preventions. Disease burden of influenza. 2022. 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