{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,27]],"date-time":"2026-09-27T15:01:20Z","timestamp":1790521280720,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":17,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,6]],"date-time":"2022-09-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1662422400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,6]],"date-time":"2022-09-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1662422400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:label\/>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      While the number of detected Monkeypox infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of its spread. The aim of this study is to estimate the true number of Monkeypox (detected and undetected) infections in most affected countries. The question being asked is: How many cases have actually occurred? We propose a lower bound estimator for the true number of Monkeypox cases. The estimator is data\u2010driven and can be easily computed from the cumulative distributions of weekly cases. We focused on the ratio of the total estimated cases to the observed cases on July 31, 2022: The proportion of undetected cases was relevant in all countries, with countries whose estimated\n                      <jats:italic>true<\/jats:italic>\n                      number of infections could be more than three times the observed one. We provided a practical contribution to the understanding of the current Monkeypox wave and reliable estimates on how many undetected cases are going around in several countries, where the epidemic spreads differently.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.28099","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,8,27]],"date-time":"2022-08-27T06:04:56Z","timestamp":1661580296000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"95","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8377-9950","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Antonello","family":"Maruotti","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department GEPLI Libera Universit\u00e0 Ss Maria Assunta Rome Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Dankmar","family":"B\u00f6hning","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Southamption Statistical Sciences Research Institute University of Southampton Southampton UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Irene","family":"Rocchetti","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Statistical Office\u2014Consiglio Superiore della Magistratura Rome Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3866-9239","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Massimo","family":"Ciccozzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, Unit of Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology University Campus Bio\u2010Medico of Rome Rome Italy"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"BragazziNL KongJD MahroumN et al.Epidemiological trends and clinical features of the ongoing monkeypox epidemic: a preliminary pooled data analysis and literature review.J Med Virol.2022.doi:10.1002\/jmv.27931","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.27931"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"SaxenaSK AnsariS MauryaVK et al.Re\u2010emerging human monkeypox: a major public\u2010health debacle.J Med Virol.doi:10.1002\/jmv.27902","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.27902"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"SiddiquiMO SyedMA TariqR MansoorS.Multicounty outbreak of monkeypox virus\u2014challenges and recommendations.J Med Virol.2022.doi:10.1002\/jmv.27966","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.27966"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"321","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2022.11839","article-title":"Expanding Monkeypox testing","volume":"328","author":"Suran M","year":"2022","journal-title":"JAMA"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Ferr\u00e9VM BachelardA ZaidiM et al.Detection of Monkeypox virus in anorectal swabs from asymptomatic men who have sex with men in a sexually transmitted infection screening program in Paris France.Ann Intern Med.2022.doi:10.7326\/M22-2183","DOI":"10.7326\/M22-2183"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"De BaetselierI Van DijckC KenyonC et al.Retrospective detection of asymptomatic monkeypox virus infections among male sexual health clinic attendees in Belgium.Nat\u00a0Med.2022.doi:10.1038\/s41591-022-02004-w","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591-022-02004-w"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.326.7403.1396"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","volume-title":"Capture\u2013Recapture Methods for the Social and Medical Science","author":"B\u00f6hning D","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","unstructured":"MathieuE SpoonerF DattaniS RitchieH RoserM. \u201cMonkeypox\u201d. Accessed August 8 2022.\u00a0https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/monkeypox"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","first-page":"3","article-title":"Thirty years of progeny from Chao's inequality: estimating and comparing richness with incidence data and incomplete sampling","volume":"41","author":"Chao A","year":"2017","journal-title":"SORT Stat Oper Res Trans"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2020.06.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00184-012-0401-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2022.12513"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2022.10802"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","unstructured":"GrusonH. Asymptor: estimate the lower and upper bound of asymptomatic cases in an epidemic using the capture\/recapture Methods. Accessed August 8 2022.https:\/\/CRAN.R-project.org\/package=asymptor"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.12082"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10651-017-0394-y"}],"container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jmv.28099","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/jmv.28099","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jmv.28099","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,8]],"date-time":"2026-03-08T08:50:43Z","timestamp":1772959843000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jmv.28099"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,6]]},"references-count":17,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jmv.28099"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jmv.28099","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0146-6615","1096-9071"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0146-6615","type":"print"},{"value":"1096-9071","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2022-08-09","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2022-08-24","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2022-09-06","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e28099"}}