{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T13:58:03Z","timestamp":1787320683387,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,23]],"date-time":"2022-09-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1663891200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,23]],"date-time":"2022-09-23T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1663891200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000038","name":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000038","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>To model the spread of monkeypox (MPX) in a metropolitan area for assessing the risk of possible outbreaks, and identifying essential public health measures to contain the virus spread.\u00a0The animal reservoir is the key element in the modeling of zoonotic disease. Using a One Health approach, we model the spread of the MPX virus in humans considering potential animal hosts such as rodents (e.g., rats, mice, squirrels, chipmunks, etc.) and emphasize their role and transmission of the virus in a high\u2010risk group, including gay and bisexual men\u2010who\u2010have\u2010sex\u2010with\u2010men (gbMSM). From model and sensitivity analysis, we identify key public health factors and present scenarios under different transmission assumptions.\u00a0We find that the MPX virus may spill over from gbMSM high\u2010risk groups to broader populations if the efficiency of transmission increases in the higher\u2010risk group. However, the risk of outbreak can be greatly reduced if at least 65% of symptomatic cases can be isolated and their contacts traced and quarantined. In addition, infections in an animal reservoir will exacerbate MPX transmission risk in the human population.\u00a0Regions or communities with a higher proportion of gbMSM individuals need greater public health attention. Tracing and quarantine (or \u201ceffective quarantine\u201d by postexposure vaccination) of contacts with MPX cases in high\u2010risk groups would have a significant effect on controlling the spreading. Also, monitoring for animal infections would be prudent.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.28137","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,12]],"date-time":"2022-09-12T02:08:57Z","timestamp":1662948537000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":33,"title":["Assessing transmission risks and control strategy for monkeypox as an emerging zoonosis in a metropolitan area"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"95","author":[{"given":"Pei","family":"Yuan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS),\u00a0Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yi","family":"Tan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS),\u00a0Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Liu","family":"Yang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS),\u00a0Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"School of Mathematics and Statistics Northeast Normal University Changchun, Jilin China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elena","family":"Aruffo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS),\u00a0Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicholas H.","family":"Ogden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory Public Health Agency of Canada Ottawa Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jacques","family":"B\u00e9lair","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"D\u00e9partement de Math\u00e9matiques et de Statistique Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al Montr\u00e9al Qu\u00e9bec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jane","family":"Heffernan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics York University Toronto Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julien","family":"Arino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics University of Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James","family":"Watmough","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of New Brunswick Fredericton New Brunswick Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"H\u00e9l\u00e8ne","family":"Carabin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"D\u00e9partement de Pathologie et Microbiologie, Facult\u00e9 de m\u00e9decine v\u00e9t\u00e9rinaire Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al Saint\u2010Hyacinthe Qu\u00e9bec Canada"},{"name":"D\u00e9partement de m\u00e9decine sociale et pr\u00e9ventive \u00c9cole de sant\u00e9 publique de l'universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al Montr\u00e9al Qu\u00e9bec Canada"},{"name":"Centre de Recherche en Sant\u00e9 Publique (CReSP) de l'universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al et du CIUSS du Centre Sud de Montr\u00e9al Montr\u00e9al Qu\u00e9bec Canada"},{"name":"Groupe de Recherche en \u00c9pid\u00e9miologie des Zoonoses et Sant\u00e9 Publique (GREZOSP) Universit\u00e9 de Montr\u00e9al Saint\u2010Hyacinthe Qu\u00e9bec Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Huaiping","family":"Zhu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS),\u00a0Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Centre for Diseases Modeling (CDM) York University Toronto Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,9,23]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","volume-title":"Monkeypox: Public Health Advice for Gay, Bisexual and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men","author":"World Health Organization.\u00a0","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","volume-title":"Multi\u2010Country Monkeypox Outbreak in Non\u2010endemic Countries","author":"World Health Organization.\u00a0","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","volume-title":"Multi\u2010Country Monkeypox Outbreak: Situation Update","author":"World Health Organization.\u00a0","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0010141"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.19.242347"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","volume-title":"Second Meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) Emergency Committee Regarding the Multi\u2010Country Outbreak of 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