{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T13:42:42Z","timestamp":1787319762801,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,29]],"date-time":"2022-10-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1667001600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,29]],"date-time":"2022-10-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1667001600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003725","name":"National Research Foundation of Korea","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003725","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>In May 2022, monkeypox started to spread in nonendemic countries. To investigate contact tracing and self\u2010reporting of the primary case in the local community, a stochastic model is developed. An algorithm based on Gillespie's stochastic chemical kinetics is used to quantify the number of infections, contacts, and duration from the arrival of the primary case to the detection of the index case (or until there are no more local infections). Different scenarios were set considering the delay in contact tracing and behavior of infectors. We found that the self\u2010reporting behavior of a primary case is the most significant factor affecting outbreak size and duration. Scenarios with a self\u2010reporting primary case have an 86% reduction in infections (average: 5\u20137, in a population of 10\u2009000) and contacts (average: 27\u201372) compared with scenarios with a non\u2010self\u2010reporting primary case (average number of infections and contacts: 27\u201372 and 197\u2013537, respectively). Doubling the number of close contacts per day is less impactful compared with the self\u2010reporting behavior of the primary case as it could only increase the number of infections by 45%. Our study emphasizes the importance of the prompt detection of the primary case.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.28232","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,18]],"date-time":"2022-10-18T01:23:40Z","timestamp":1666056220000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["Estimation of monkeypox spread in a nonendemic country considering contact tracing and self\u2010reporting: A stochastic modeling study"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"95","author":[{"given":"Youngsuk","family":"Ko","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics Konkuk University Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Victoria\u00a0May","family":"Mendoza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics Konkuk University Seoul South Korea"},{"name":"Institute of Mathematics University of the Philippines Diliman Quezon City Philippines"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Renier","family":"Mendoza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics Konkuk University Seoul South Korea"},{"name":"Institute of Mathematics University of the Philippines Diliman Quezon City Philippines"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yubin","family":"Seo","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Disease, Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital Hallym University College of Medicine Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jacob","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Infectious Disease, Kangnam Sacred Heart Hospital Hallym University College of Medicine Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Eunok","family":"Jung","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics Konkuk University Seoul South Korea"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2022,10,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/v12111257"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid1003.030878"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amsu.2022.104049"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s40265-022-01742-y"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taac077"},{"issue":"2","key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","first-page":"165","article-title":"Human monkeypox, 1970\u201079","volume":"58","author":"Breman JG","year":"1980","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taz002"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taac072"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S1473-3099(22)00354-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.27884"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.o1874"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","unstructured":"MathieuE DattaniS RitchieH SpoonerF RoserM. 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