{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,11,7]],"date-time":"2026-11-07T05:50:26Z","timestamp":1794030626934,"version":"4.8.0"},"reference-count":38,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,6]],"date-time":"2023-12-06T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1701820800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":5,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001804","name":"Canada Research Chairs","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001804","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>The 2022 mpox outbreak predominantly impacted gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM). Two models were developed to support situational awareness and management decisions in Canada. A compartmental model characterized epidemic drivers at national\/provincial levels, while an agent\u2010based model (ABM) assessed municipal\u2010level impacts of vaccination. The models were parameterized and calibrated using empirical case and vaccination data between 2022 and 2023. The compartmental model explored: (1) the epidemic trajectory through community transmission, (2) the potential for transmission among non\u2010gbMSM, and (3) impacts of vaccination and the proportion of gbMSM contributing to disease transmission. The ABM incorporated sexual\u2010contact data and modeled: (1) effects of vaccine uptake on disease dynamics, and (2) impacts of case importation on outbreak resurgence. The calibrated, compartmental model followed the trajectory of the epidemic, which peaked in July 2022, and died out in December 2022. Most cases occurred among gbMSM, and epidemic trajectories were not consistent with sustained transmission among non\u2010gbMSM. The ABM suggested that unprioritized vaccination strategies could increase the outbreak size by 47%, and that consistent importation (\u22655 cases per 10\u2009000) is necessary for outbreak resurgence. These models can inform time\u2010sensitive situational awareness and policy decisions for similar future outbreaks.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.29256","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,6]],"date-time":"2023-12-06T12:59:04Z","timestamp":1701867544000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Exploring the dynamics of the 2022 mpox outbreak in Canada"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"95","author":[{"given":"Rachael M.","family":"Milwid","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory Public Health Agency of Canada St\u2010Hyacinthe Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Michael","family":"Li","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory Public Health Agency of Canada Guelph Canada"},{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics McMaster University Hamilton Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aamir","family":"Fazil","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory Public Health Agency of Canada Guelph Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Mathieu","family":"Maheu\u2010Giroux","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health McGill University Montr\u00e9al Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Carla M.","family":"Doyle","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health McGill University Montr\u00e9al Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yiqing","family":"Xia","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health McGill University Montr\u00e9al Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Joseph","family":"Cox","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health McGill University Montr\u00e9al Canada"},{"name":"STBBI Surveillance Division, Infectious Diseases and Vaccination Programs Branch Public Health Agency of Canada Montr\u00e9al Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Daniel","family":"Grace","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Dalla Lana School of Public Health University of Toronto Toronto Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Milada","family":"Dvorakova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre Montreal Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Steven C.","family":"Walker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics McMaster University Hamilton Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sharmistha","family":"Mishra","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine University of Toronto Toronto Canada"},{"name":"MAP Centre for Urban Health Solutions, Ki Ka Shing Knowledge Institute Unity Health Toronto Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Institute of Medical Science, Faculty of Medicine University of Toronto Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, and Division of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health University of Toronto Toronto Canada"},{"name":"ICES Toronto Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicholas H.","family":"Ogden","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory Public Health Agency of Canada St\u2010Hyacinthe Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,12,6]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pntd.0007791"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/17.3.643"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7203a4"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijsu.2022.106812"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amsu.2022.104069"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","unstructured":"MathieuE SpoonerF DattaniS RitchieH RoserMMonkeypox.2022;https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/monkeypox. 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