{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,21]],"date-time":"2026-08-21T12:21:40Z","timestamp":1787314900820,"version":"build-2736575974"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,31]],"date-time":"2024-01-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1706659200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,31]],"date-time":"2024-01-31T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1706659200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:label\/>\n                    <jats:p>\n                      Starting from May 31, 2023, the local transmission of monkeypox (Mpox) in mainland China began in Beijing. Till now, the transmission characteristics have not been explored. Based on the daily Mpox incidence data in the first 3 weeks of Beijing (from May 31 to June 21, 2023), we employed the instant\u2010individual heterogeneity transmission model to simultaneously calculate the effective reproduction number (\n                      <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                      <jats:sub>e<\/jats:sub>\n                      ) and the degree of heterogeneity (\n                      <jats:italic>k<\/jats:italic>\n                      ) of the Beijing epidemic. We additionally simulated the monthly infection size in Beijing from July to November and compared with the reported data to project subsequent transmission dynamics. We estimated\n                      <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                      <jats:sub>e<\/jats:sub>\n                      to be 1.68 (95% highest posterior density [HPD]: 1.12\u22122.41), and\n                      <jats:italic>k<\/jats:italic>\n                      to be 2.57 [95% HPD: 0.54\u221283.88], suggesting the transmission of Mpox in Beijing was supercritical and didn't have considerable transmission heterogeneity. We projected that\n                      <jats:italic>R<\/jats:italic>\n                      <jats:sub>e<\/jats:sub>\n                      fell in the range of 0.95\u22121.0 from July to November, highlighting more efforts needed to further reduce the Mpox transmissibility. Our findings revealed supercritical and homogeneous transmission of the Mpox epidemic in Beijing. Our results could serve as a reference for understanding and predicting the ongoing Mpox transmission in other regions of China and evaluating the effect of control measures.\n                    <\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.29442","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,31]],"date-time":"2024-01-31T06:09:05Z","timestamp":1706681345000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":4,"title":["Supercritical and homogenous transmission of monkeypox in the capital of China"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"96","author":[{"given":"Yunjun","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health Peking University Beijing China"},{"name":"Center for Statistical Science Peking University Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7935-1222","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Xiaohua","family":"Zhou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health Peking University Beijing China"},{"name":"Center for Statistical Science Peking University Beijing China"},{"name":"Beijing International Center for Mathematical Research Peking University Beijing China"},{"name":"School of Mathematical Sciences Peking University Beijing China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,31]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.2022Mpox outbreak global map. 2022. Accessed December 15 2023.https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/poxvirus\/mpox\/response\/2022\/world-map.html"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bsheal.2023.07.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","unstructured":"China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Mpox survilliance data. Accessed December 15 2023.https:\/\/www.chinacdc.cn\/jkzt\/crb\/zl\/szkb_13037\/gwjszl_13092\/"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/22221751.2023.2254407"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.onehlt.2023.100540"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","first-page":"44","article-title":"Monkeypox: a review of epidemiological modelling studies and how modelling has led to mechanistic insight","volume":"1","author":"Banuet\u2010Martinez M","year":"2023","journal-title":"Epidemiology Infect"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/vaccines11121765"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MS9.0000000000000229"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jtm\/taac099"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.26881"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010078"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nature04153"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/v14092012"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwt133"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.28248"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7717\/peerj-cs.1516"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid2904.221622"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.bsheal.2023.10.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_20_1","article-title":"Characterizing spatiotemporal variation in transmission heterogeneity during the 2022 mpox outbreak in the USA","author":"Love J","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ofid\/ofx168"}],"container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jmv.29442","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/jmv.29442","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jmv.29442","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,8]],"date-time":"2026-03-08T16:23:55Z","timestamp":1772987035000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jmv.29442"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,31]]},"references-count":20,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jmv.29442"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jmv.29442","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{"has-preprint":[{"id-type":"doi","id":"10.22541\/au.169816151.19627279\/v1","asserted-by":"object"}]},"ISSN":["0146-6615","1096-9071"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0146-6615","type":"print"},{"value":"1096-9071","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,1,31]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-10-22","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-01-19","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-01-31","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e29442"}}