{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,24]],"date-time":"2026-07-24T23:40:46Z","timestamp":1784936446188,"version":"3.55.0"},"reference-count":37,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,2]],"date-time":"2024-08-02T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1722556800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":1,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100004851","name":"New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100004851","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>In mid\u20102022, New York City (NYC) became the epicenter of the US mpox outbreak. We provided real\u2010time mpox case forecasts to the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene to aid in outbreak response. Forecasting methodologies evolved as the epidemic progressed. Initially, lacking knowledge of at\u2010risk population size, we used exponential growth models to forecast cases. Once exponential growth slowed, we used a Susceptible\u2010Exposed\u2010Infectious\u2010Recovered (SEIR) model. Retrospectively, we explored if forecasts could have been improved using an SEIR model in place of our early exponential growth model, with or without knowing the case detection rate. Early forecasts from exponential growth models performed poorly, as 2\u2010week mean absolute error (MAE) grew from 53 cases\/week (July 1\u201314)\u00a0to 457 cases\/week (July 15\u201328).\u00a0However, when exponential growth slowed, providing insight into susceptible population size, an SEIR model was able to accurately predict the remainder of the outbreak (7\u2010week MAE: 13.4 cases\/week). Retrospectively, we found there was not enough known about the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak to parameterize an SEIR model early on. However, if the at\u2010risk population and case detection rate were known, an SEIR model could have improved accuracy over exponential growth models early in the outbreak.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.29791","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,2]],"date-time":"2024-08-02T11:37:27Z","timestamp":1722598647000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":11,"title":["Performance analysis of mathematical methods used to forecast the 2022 New York City Mpox outbreak"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"96","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0771-1353","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"David","family":"Kaftan","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"NYU Grossman School of Medicine New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Hae\u2010Young","family":"Kim","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYU Grossman School of Medicine New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Charles","family":"Ko","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"James S.","family":"Howard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Prachi","family":"Dalal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nao","family":"Yamamoto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYU Grossman School of Medicine New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"R. Scott","family":"Braithwaite","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYU Grossman School of Medicine New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Anna","family":"Bershteyn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"NYU Grossman School of Medicine New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,8,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","unstructured":"Monkeypox \u2010 United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland [Internet]. [cited 2023 May 8]. Available from:https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/disease-outbreak-news\/item\/2022-DON381"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","unstructured":"Multi\u2010country outbreak of monkeypox External situation report #1 \u2010 6 July 2022 [Internet]. [cited 2023 May 8]. Available from:https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/m\/item\/multi-country-outbreak-of-monkeypox--external-situation-report--1---6-july-2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-022-13310-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12889-022-14846-7"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm7235a2"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/pathogens11080924"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15585\/mmwr.mm715152a3"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.rinp.2023.106889"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0950268823000791"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12916-022-02725-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/forecast5010005"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fphy.2020.00127"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","volume-title":"Unpacking modeling studies. The 30th conference on retroviruses and opportunistic infections","author":"Lima V","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2020.08.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","unstructured":"Mpox (Monkeypox) \u2010 NYC Health [Internet]. [cited2023May 9]. Available from:https:\/\/www.nyc.gov\/site\/doh\/health\/health-topics\/monkeypox.page"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","unstructured":"KaftanD ScrapeNYC2022. Monkeypox Data [Internet]. New York University Grossman School of Medicine. Available from:https:\/\/github.com\/BershteynLab\/ScrapeNYCMonkeypoxData"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","unstructured":"NYC DOHMH. NYC mpox (Orthopoxvirus) Data [Internet]. [cited2022Aug 1]. Available from:https:\/\/github.com\/nychealth\/monkeypox-data"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","unstructured":"NYC DOHMH2022. Health Department Announces Next Phase of Monkeypox Vaccine Strategy \u2013 NYC Health [Internet]. Available from:https:\/\/www.nyc.gov\/site\/doh\/about\/press\/pr2022\/health-department-announces-next-phase-of-monkeypox-vaccine-strategy.page"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","unstructured":"Health Department Announces Next Allocation of Monkeypox Vaccine and the Opening of New Appointments \u2010 NYC Health [Internet]2022. Available from:https:\/\/www.nyc.gov\/site\/doh\/about\/press\/pr2022\/monkeypox-next-allocation-vaccines-new-appointments.page"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","unstructured":"City Opens Second Dose Monkeypox Vaccine Eligibility to 28\u2010Day Interval \u2010 NYC Health [Internet].2022[cited 2023 Nov 16]. Available from:https:\/\/www.nyc.gov\/site\/doh\/about\/press\/pr2022\/city-opens-second-dose-monkeypox-vaccine-eligibility-to-28-day-interval.page"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.idm.2019.12.009"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(95)92756-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4613-0065-6_17"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.aml.2014.08.012"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0025-5564(94)90025-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","first-page":"2546","volume-title":"Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems","author":"Bergstra J","year":"2011"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1145\/3292500.3330701"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","unstructured":"New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. Community Health Survey Public Use Data [Internet]. Available from:https:\/\/www.nyc.gov\/site\/doh\/data\/data-sets\/community-health-survey-public-use-data.page"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2471\/BLT.19.242347"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2807\/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.24.2200448"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_33_1","unstructured":"Centers for Disease Control and Prevention[Internet].2023[cited 2023 May 9]. Mpox in the U.S. Available from:https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/poxvirus\/mpox\/clinicians\/clinical-recognition.html"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_11_34_1","first-page":"465","article-title":"Human monkeypox: secondary attack rates","volume":"66","author":"Jezek Z","year":"1988","journal-title":"Bull World Health Organ"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_35_1","volume-title":"Investigation into monkeypox outbreak in England: technical briefing 4","author":"GOV.UK [Internet]","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_36_1","unstructured":"SmithTG others. pmdarima: ARIMA estimators for Python [Internet].2017. Available from:http:\/\/www.alkaline-ml.com\/pmdarima"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/073500102753410444"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/milmed\/usx092"}],"container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jmv.29791","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,26]],"date-time":"2024-09-26T13:07:21Z","timestamp":1727356041000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jmv.29791"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]},"references-count":37,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jmv.29791"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jmv.29791","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0146-6615","1096-9071"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0146-6615","type":"print"},{"value":"1096-9071","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-03-25","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-07-02","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-08-02","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e29791"}}