{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,31]],"date-time":"2026-07-31T22:45:38Z","timestamp":1785537938676,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"12","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,9]],"date-time":"2024-12-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1733702400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":8,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Journal of Medical Virology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,12]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:p>Acute\u2010on\u2010chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe condition characterized by a systemic inflammatory response and associated with high mortality. Currently, there is no reliable prediction model for long\u2010term prognosis in ACLF. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model incorporating inflammation indexes to predict the long\u2010term outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus\u2010related ACLF (HBV\u2010ACLF). A retrospective analysis of clinical data from HBV\u2010ACLF patients (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u2009986) treated at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat\u2010sen University between January 2014 and December 2018 was conducted. Patients were randomly divided into training (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u2009690) and validation (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u2009296) cohorts. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors for long\u2010term mortality. The following variables were identified as independent predictors of long\u2010term mortality: age, cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy, total bilirubin (TBIL), international normalized ratio (INR), monocyte\u2010to\u2010lymphocyte ratio (MLR), and neutrophil\u2010to\u2010platelet ratio (NPR). A novel nomogram was established by assigning weights to each variable. The C\u2010index of the nomogram was 0.777 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.752\u20130.802). In the training set, the area under the curve (AUC) for predicting mortality at 1, 3, and 12 months was 0.841 (95% CI: 0.807\u20130.875), 0.827 (95% CI: 0.796\u20130.859), and 0.829 (95% CI: 0.798\u20130.859), respectively. The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive performance for 12\u2010month survival compared to the model for end\u2010stage liver disease (MELD) score (0.767, 95% CI: 0.730\u20130.804, <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.001) and the clinical overt sepsis in acute liver failure clinical practice Guidelines\u2010ACLF II score (0.807, 95% CI: 0.774\u20130.840, <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.028). Finally, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the clinical utility of the nomogram. The novel inflammation\u2010based scoring system, incorporating MLR and NPR, effectively predicts long\u2010term mortality in HBV\u2010ACLF patients.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jmv.70110","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,9]],"date-time":"2024-12-09T11:06:32Z","timestamp":1733742392000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Development and Validation of a New Model Including Inflammation Indexes for the Long\u2010Term Prognosis of Hepatitis B\u2010Related Acute\u2010On\u2010Chronic Liver Failure"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"96","author":[{"given":"Yeqiong","family":"Zhang","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat\u2010sen University Guangzhou China"},{"name":"Guangdong Key Laboratory of Liver Disease Research Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat\u2010sen University Guangzhou 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