{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,20]],"date-time":"2026-06-20T12:11:30Z","timestamp":1781957490937,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":42,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"13","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,24]],"date-time":"2018-07-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1532390400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Intl Journal of Climatology"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Surface temperature of the Black Sea increased due to climate change during the 20th century and continues to rise. Here we present by in situ data\u2010corrected remote\u2010sensed SST data covering a 34\u2010year period (1982\u20132015). Using a linear black box model, we predicted the Black Sea surface temperature (SST) up to 2100. During the 34\u2010year study period, we detected a 0.64\u2009\u00b0C increase in SST per decade. The largest monthly fluctuations in SST were during late summer (August) and autumn (November). The rate of SST increase has almost caught up with the worst climate change scenario for the future. At the end of this century, the relative increase in average Black Sea SST is predicted to be 5.1 \u00b0C. In summary, our data show sea surface warming during recent decades, and we predict that this warming is likely to continue under the present environmental condition. The warming of the sea seems to also influence the amount of caught anchovies in the Black Sea. After 1993, the amount of captured anchovies in the southern Black Sea was drastically decreased with increased SST.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/joc.5688","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,25]],"date-time":"2018-07-25T02:37:01Z","timestamp":1532486221000},"page":"4687-4698","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":44,"title":["Sea surface temperature change in the Black Sea under climate change: A simulation of the sea surface temperature up to 2100"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"38","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2488-7318","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Abdulla","family":"Sakalli","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Faculty of Marine Sciences and Technology Iskenderun Technical University  Iskenderun Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nuri","family":"Ba\u015fusta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Fisheries Faculty Firat University  Elaz\u0131\u011f Turkey"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,7,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1529-8817.2003.00790.x"},{"issue":"9","key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","first-page":"W09530","article-title":"A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature","volume":"48","author":"Beek L.P.H.","year":"2012","journal-title":"Water Resources Research"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pocean.2009.04.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.0702059104"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cub.2009.05.046"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1006\/jmsc.1996.0014"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_8_1","unstructured":"CDO. (2015)Climate Data Operators. Available at:http:\/\/www.mpimet.mpg.de\/cdo."},{"key":"e_1_2_7_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.1075880"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-marine-122414-033819"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/nclimate2923"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_13_1","volume-title":"Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change","author":"Collins M.","year":"2013"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-2486.2010.02261.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_15_1","volume-title":"Fish Catches by Country or Territory of Capture, by Species in the Black Sea. GFCM capture production 1970\u20132014","author":"FAO","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0071297"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmarsys.2004.05.002"},{"issue":"4","key":"e_1_2_7_18_1","first-page":"209","article-title":"The Black and Azov Seas: comparative analysis of SST variability (1982\u20132009, satellite data)","volume":"8","author":"Ginzburg A.I.","year":"2011","journal-title":"Current Problems in Remote Sensing of the Earth From Space"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1095-8312.2006.00651.x"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_7_20_1","first-page":"863","article-title":"Sea surface temperature anomalies along the Black Sea Region coast of Turkey (1971\u20132010 period)","volume":"10","author":"G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc Y.","year":"2013","journal-title":"International Journal of Human Sciences"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2010RG000345"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_22_1","volume-title":"Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. 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Stips A. Garcia\u2010Gorriz E. and Moy D.M. (2017) Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long\u2010term trends and variations.Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 122 5624\u20105644.https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/2016JC012644.","DOI":"10.1002\/2016JC012644"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmarsys.2009.07.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_32_1","unstructured":"National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (2016)Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature (ERSST.v4). Asheville NC: National Centers for Environmental Information. 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(2016) Impact of climate change on water availability. In: Mauser W. and Prasch M. (Eds).Regional Assessment of Global Change Impacts. 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