{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,8]],"date-time":"2026-09-08T17:24:36Z","timestamp":1788888276753,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":69,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,30]],"date-time":"2021-12-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1640822400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001711","name":"Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur F\u00f6rderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["189295"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["189295"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001711","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Research Synthesis Methods"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2022,5]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>It is now widely accepted that the standard inferential toolkit used by the scientific research community\u2014null\u2010hypothesis significance testing (NHST)\u2014is not fit for purpose. Yet despite the threat posed to the scientific enterprise, there is no agreement concerning alternative approaches for evidence assessment. This lack of consensus reflects long\u2010standing issues concerning Bayesian methods, the principal alternative to NHST. We report on recent work that builds on an approach to inference put forward over 70\u2009years ago to address the well\u2010known \u201cProblem of Priors\u201d in Bayesian analysis, by reversing the conventional prior\u2010likelihood\u2010posterior (\u201cforward\u201d) use of Bayes' theorem. Such Reverse\u2010Bayes analysis allows priors to be deduced from the likelihood by requiring that the posterior achieve a specified level of credibility. We summarise the technical underpinning of this approach, and show how it opens up new approaches to common inferential challenges, such as assessing the credibility of scientific findings, setting them in appropriate context, estimating the probability of successful replications, and extracting more insight from NHST while reducing the risk of misinterpretation. We argue that Reverse\u2010Bayes methods have a key role to play in making Bayesian methods more accessible and attractive for evidence assessment and research synthesis. As a running example we consider a recently published meta\u2010analysis from several randomised controlled trials (RCTs) investigating the association between corticosteroids and mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID\u201019.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/jrsm.1538","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,10]],"date-time":"2021-12-10T05:38:49Z","timestamp":1639114729000},"page":"295-314","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":22,"title":["<scp>Reverse\u2010Bayes<\/scp> methods for evidence assessment and research synthesis"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"13","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8686-5325","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Leonhard","family":"Held","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics University of Zurich  Zurich Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1253-6107","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Robert","family":"Matthews","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics Aston University  Birmingham UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8050-7279","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Manuela","family":"Ott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics University of Zurich  Zurich Switzerland"},{"name":"Data Team, Swiss National Science Foundation  Bern Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-2779-320X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samuel","family":"Pawel","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics University of Zurich  Zurich Switzerland"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2021,12,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","volume-title":"Good Thinking: the Foundations of Probability and its Applications","author":"Good IJ","year":"1983"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1511\/2014.111.460"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.2016.1154108"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1740-9713.2017.01021.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.2019.1583913"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","first-page":"181","volume-title":"Bayesian Versus Frequentist Inference","author":"Wagenmakers 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