{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,30]],"date-time":"2026-10-30T15:07:23Z","timestamp":1793372843074,"version":"4.5.0"},"reference-count":49,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,3]],"date-time":"2019-01-03T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1546473600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001809","name":"National Natural Science Foundation of China","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["31801455"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["31801455"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001809","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J Sci Food Agric"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>BACKGROUND<\/jats:title><jats:p>To estimate the public health risk related to cooked meat in bulk products contaminated with <jats:styled-content style=\"fixed-case\"><jats:italic>Listeria monocytogenes<\/jats:italic><\/jats:styled-content>, a generic Bayesian network (BN) risk\u2010assessment model was developed to simulate influencing factors and processes of products from the industry level to the consumer level. To quantify the model, parameter values of prior distributions were acquired from the literature, websites, and expert opinions. Using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach, posterior probability distributions were calculated according to the incorporated evidence, which allowed us to predict various risks affected by processing variability from production to consumption.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>RESULTS<\/jats:title><jats:p>The average risks of listeriosis from consuming cooked meat in bulk products are 8.40\u00a0\u00d7\u00a010<jats:sup>\u22127<\/jats:sup>, 2.58\u00a0\u00d7\u00a010<jats:sup>\u22128<\/jats:sup>, 8.24\u00a0\u00d7\u00a010<jats:sup>\u22127<\/jats:sup>, and 1.05\u00a0\u00d7\u00a010<jats:sup>\u22126<\/jats:sup> per meal for children, young people, elderly people, and pregnant women, respectively. The estimated mean number of listeriosis cases is 5 per 100\u2009000 people per year in China.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>CONCLUSION<\/jats:title><jats:p>Although only a conceptual BN model is given, it manifests the principles and characteristics of mathematical methods. The BN model can also provide significant benefits for quantitative risk assessment by incorporating all available data and by updating beliefs. \u00a9 2018 Society of Chemical Industry<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/jsfa.9506","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,11,24]],"date-time":"2018-11-24T11:39:38Z","timestamp":1543059578000},"page":"2931-2938","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":10,"title":["Quantitative risk assessment of <i>Listeria monocytogenes<\/i> in bulk cooked meat from production to consumption in China: a Bayesian approach"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"99","author":[{"given":"Wanxia","family":"Sun","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medical Instrument and Food Engineering University of Shanghai for Science and Technology  Shanghai China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Yangtai","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medical Instrument and Food Engineering University of Shanghai for Science and Technology  Shanghai China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Xiang","family":"Wang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medical Instrument and Food Engineering University of Shanghai for Science and Technology  Shanghai China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Qing","family":"Liu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medical Instrument and Food Engineering University of Shanghai for Science and Technology  Shanghai China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9019-0001","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Qingli","family":"Dong","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Medical Instrument and Food Engineering University of Shanghai for Science and Technology  Shanghai China"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,3]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","volume-title":"Microorganisms in Foods 5: Microbiological Specifications of Food Pathogens","author":"The International Commission on Microbiological Specification for Foods","year":"1996"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jsfa.8127"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinf.2011.10.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","unstructured":"New Zealand Food Safety Authority [Internet].Microbial Pathogen Data Sheets\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Listeria monocytogenes. 14 March 2008 [cited 29 July 2018]. Available from:http:\/\/www.nzfsa.govt.nz\/science\/data\u2010sheets\/index.htm."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1142\/S0192415X11009019"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","first-page":"503","volume-title":"Listeria, Listeriosis, and Food Safety","author":"Farber J","year":"2007"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","first-page":"132","article-title":"Risk assessment and investigation of \n                     Listeria monocytogenes\n                   contamination of meat and meat products at retail in Yantai","volume":"38","author":"Gong CB","year":"2013","journal-title":"Food Sci Technol"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0168-1605(03)00326-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envint.2015.03.013"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2013.02.008"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","volume-title":"Bayesian Modelling for Risk\u2010Based Environmental Water Allocation","author":"Hart B","year":"2009"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-68282-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2012.01888.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","volume-title":"Bayesian Artificial Intelligence","author":"Korb K","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4315\/0362-028X-67.5.939"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijfoodmicro.2005.06.021"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2008.01000.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/risa.12827"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fm.2011.11.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_21_1","first-page":"54","article-title":"Microbiological hazard analysis of ready\u2010to\u2010eat meats processed at a food plant in Trinidad, West Indies","volume":"3","author":"Syne SM","year":"2013","journal-title":"Infect Ecol Epidemiol"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodcont.2009.05.019"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_23_1","first-page":"33","article-title":"Meat cold processing technology","author":"Wang ZZ","year":"2010","journal-title":"N Rural Technol"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_24_1","unstructured":"Food Mate website. [Internet].Research Progress of Application of Stewed Meat Products Processing and New Technology. c2018 [cited 11 October 2018]. Available from:http:\/\/www.foodmate.net\/tech\/jiagong\/jiagong11\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_25_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Hazard analysis and establishment of critical control point in meat processing","volume":"7","author":"Zhang ZQ","year":"1995","journal-title":"Chin J Food Hygiene"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijfoodmicro.2010.01.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_27_1","first-page":"14","article-title":"Chinese\u2010style cooked meat products of industrial production","volume":"6","author":"Ding ZW","year":"1995","journal-title":"Meat Industry"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4315\/0362-028X.JFP-10-351"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.foodcont.2017.04.003"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_30_1","unstructured":"U.S. Food and Drug Administration\u2010Food Safety and Inspection Service.Quantitative Assessment of Relative Risk to Public Health from Foodborne Listeria monocytogenes among Selected Categories of Ready\u2010to\u2010eat Foods [Internet]. January 12 2010 [cited 20 June 2018]. Available from:http:\/\/www.fsis.usda.gov\/Science\/Risk_Assessments\/index."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_31_1","unstructured":"Food and Agriculture Organization and World Health Organization.Risk Assessment of Listeria monocytogenes in Ready\u2010to\u2010eat Foods: Microbiological Risk Assessment Series 5 [Internet]. 2004 [cited 30 June 2018]. Available from:http:\/\/www.who.int\/foodsafety\/publications\/mra_listeria\/en\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3201\/eid0505.990502"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijfoodmicro.2009.02.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_34_1","volume-title":"Investigation Report on Nutrition and Health of Chinese Residents","author":"Wang LD","year":"2005"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_35_1","unstructured":"Chinese National Bureau of Statistics.Tabulation on the 2010 Population Census of the People's Republic of China [Internet]. 2012 [cited 2 August 2018]. Available from:http:\/\/www.stats.gov.cn\/tjsj\/pcsj\/rkpc\/6rp\/indexch.htm."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_36_1","first-page":"447","article-title":"Risk ranking of \n                     Listeria monocytogenes\n                   contaminated ready\u2010to\u2010eat foods at retail for sensitive population in China","volume":"27","author":"Song XY","year":"2015","journal-title":"Chin J Food Hygiene"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-4145-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_38_1","unstructured":"European Commission.Opinion of the Scientific Committee on Veterinary Measures Relating to Public Health on Listeria monocytogenes [Internet]. 23 December 1999 [cited 30 May 2018]. Available from:http:\/\/www.europa.eu.int\/comm\/food\/fs\/sc\/scv\/out25."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4315\/0362-028X.JFP-11-491"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijfoodmicro.2006.09.013"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.meatsci.2007.07.027"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM197507312930513"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijfoodmicro.2009.12.015"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_44_1","first-page":"205","article-title":"The integration of national standards for maximum limits of pesticides, contaminants and pathogenic bacteria in food","volume":"7","author":"Wang J","year":"2014","journal-title":"Chin Hort Abst"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1539-6924.2007.00921.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/15-AOAS845"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijfoodmicro.2004.11.012"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijfoodmicro.2014.02.025"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/0272-4332.00035"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_50_1","unstructured":"Codex Alimentarius Commission.Proposed Draft Principles and Guidelines for the Conduct of Microbiological Risk Assessment (at step 3 of the procedure) [Internet]. 15 December 2002 [cited 5 May 2018]. Available from:http:\/\/www.fao.org\/fao\u2010who\u2010codexalimentarius\/cl."}],"container-title":["Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjsfa.9506","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jsfa.9506","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/jsfa.9506","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jsfa.9506","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,19]],"date-time":"2025-10-19T13:32:38Z","timestamp":1760880758000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jsfa.9506"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,3]]},"references-count":49,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2019,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jsfa.9506"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jsfa.9506","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0022-5142","1097-0010"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0022-5142","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0010","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,1,3]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2018-03-10","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2018-11-19","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-01-03","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}