{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T04:40:40Z","timestamp":1772080840694,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":31,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,11]],"date-time":"2020-08-11T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1597104000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["J of Ultrasound Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives<\/jats:title><jats:p>To determine the factors that jointly and independently affect first\u2010trimester outcome of very early intrauterine pregnancies (those whose sonogram shows a gestational sac with no identifiable yolk sac or embryo) and develop a mathematical model and Web\u2010based calculator that computes prognosis based on these factors.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Our study population included 590 very early pregnancies scanned between January 1, 2012, and June 30, 2018, with known outcomes (live or spontaneous loss) at 14\u2009weeks. We recorded patient age, mean sac diameter (MSD), human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) rise, and presence\/absence of: vaginal bleeding, history of infertility, prior miscarriage, and pregnancy via assisted reproductive technology. We assessed the correlation between each of these factors and outcome and performed stepwise logistic regression to determine the subset that independently correlated with outcome.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Patient age, MSD, hCG rise, vaginal bleeding, history of infertility, and assisted reproductive technology pregnancy were significantly correlated with outcome (<jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u2009.05, <jats:italic>t<\/jats:italic> test for age and MSD, \u03c7<jats:sup>2<\/jats:sup> for the others). Stepwise logistic regression identified age, MSD, hCG rise, and vaginal bleeding as the subset of factors that independently predicted outcome. The regression model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.823. We incorporated the regression model into a Web\u2010based calculator (<jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1999\/xlink\" xlink:href=\"https:\/\/tinyurl.com\/Prognosis-PD\">https:\/\/tinyurl.com\/Prognosis-PD<\/jats:ext-link>) that predicts the outcome of an early intrauterine pregnancy based on these 4 key variables.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The prognosis of very early intrauterine pregnancies is related to several clinical, biochemical, and sonographic factors. The factors that independently correlate with first\u2010trimester outcome are patient age, MSD, hCG rise, and vaginal bleeding. The logistic regression model predicts outcome based on these variables.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/jum.15430","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,12]],"date-time":"2020-08-12T02:42:57Z","timestamp":1597200177000},"page":"541-550","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":12,"title":["<scp>First\u2010Trimester<\/scp> Prognosis When an Early Gestational Sac is Seen on Ultrasound Imaging"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"40","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-4264-2752","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Peter M.","family":"Doubilet","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiology, Brigham and Women's Hospital Harvard Medical School  Boston Massachusetts USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Catherine H.","family":"Phillips","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiology, Brigham and Women's Hospital Harvard Medical School  Boston Massachusetts USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sara M.","family":"Durfee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiology, Brigham and Women's Hospital Harvard Medical School  Boston Massachusetts USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Carol B.","family":"Benson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiology, Brigham and Women's Hospital Harvard Medical School  Boston Massachusetts USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,11]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","first-page":"118","volume-title":"Callen's Ultrasonography in Obstetrics and Gynecology","author":"Doubilet PM","year":"2017"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jum.15243"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","first-page":"e199","article-title":"ACOG Practice Bulletin 200: early pregnancy loss","volume":"132","author":"American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists","year":"2018","journal-title":"Obstet Gynecol"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM198807283190401"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0015-0282(16)58144-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/HUMREP\/11.2.406"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0015-0282(02)04694-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kws393"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","first-page":"1869","article-title":"Role of maternal age and pregnancy history in risk of miscarriage: prospective register\u2010based study","volume":"364","author":"Magnus MC","year":"2019","journal-title":"BMJ"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.320.7251.1708"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1471-0528.2006.01193.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01443610600984412"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1471-0528.2006.00924.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.fertnstert.2012.09.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejogrb.2017.11.020"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1471-0528.15468"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/humrep\/14.11.2863"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1148\/radiology.167.2.3282258"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/0020-7292(94)90409-X"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMra1302417"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/humrep\/deh078"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.AOG.0000128174.48843.12"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1148\/radiology.143.1.7063747"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/JTO.0b013e3181ec173d"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/0471722146"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/AOG.0000000000001568"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ajo.12046"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/humrep\/des352"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(96)00236-3"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280214558972"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.21315\/mjms2018.25.4.12"}],"container-title":["Journal of Ultrasound in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fjum.15430","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jum.15430","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/jum.15430","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/jum.15430","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,2]],"date-time":"2023-09-02T17:08:21Z","timestamp":1693674501000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/jum.15430"}},"subtitle":["Logistic Regression Prediction Model"],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,11]]},"references-count":31,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/jum.15430"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/jum.15430","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0278-4297","1550-9613"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0278-4297","type":"print"},{"value":"1550-9613","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2020,8,11]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2020-05-24","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-07-06","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2020-08-11","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}