{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,25]],"date-time":"2026-02-25T06:42:57Z","timestamp":1772001777258,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":50,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,26]],"date-time":"2024-09-26T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1727308800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["esskajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Knee surg. sports traumatol. arthrosc."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Purpose<\/jats:title><jats:p>The aim of this study was to develop and train a machine learning (ML) algorithm to create a clinical decision support tool (i.e., ML\u2010driven probability calculator) to be used in clinical practice to estimate recurrence rates following an arthroscopic Bankart repair (ABR).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Data from 14 previously published studies were collected. Inclusion criteria were (1) patients treated with ABR without remplissage for traumatic anterior shoulder instability and (2) a minimum of 2 years follow\u2010up. Risk factors associated with recurrence were identified using bivariate logistic regression analysis. Subsequently, four ML algorithms were developed and internally validated. The predictive performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration and the Brier score.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In total, 5591 patients underwent ABR with a recurrence rate of 15.4% (<jats:italic>n<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u2009862). Age &lt;35 years, participation in contact and collision sports, bony Bankart lesions and full\u2010thickness rotator cuff tears increased the risk of recurrence (all <jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.05). A single shoulder dislocation (compared to multiple dislocations) lowered the risk of recurrence (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u2009&lt;\u20090.05). Due to the unavailability of certain variables in some patients, a portion of the patient data had to be excluded before pooling the data set to create the algorithm. A total of 797 patients were included providing information on risk factors associated with recurrence. The discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve) ranged between 0.54 and 0.57 for prediction of recurrence.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>ML was not able to predict the recurrence following ABR with the current available predictors. Despite a global coordinated effort, the heterogeneity of clinical data limited the predictive capabilities of the algorithm, emphasizing the need for standardized data collection methods in future studies.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Level of Evidence<\/jats:title><jats:p>Level IV, retrospective cohort study.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/ksa.12443","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,26]],"date-time":"2024-09-26T05:32:17Z","timestamp":1727328737000},"page":"1488-1499","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Methodology and development of a machine learning probability calculator: Data heterogeneity limits ability to predict recurrence after arthroscopic Bankart repair"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"33","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9904-5430","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sanne H.","family":"van Spanning","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Alps Surgery Institute, Hand, Upper Limb, Peripheral Nerve, Brachial Plexus and Microsurgery Unit, Clinique G\u00e9n\u00e9rale Annecy France"},{"name":"Amsterdam Shoulder and Elbow Centre of Expertise (ASECE) Amsterdam The Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Human Movement Sciences Faculty of Behavioural and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences Amsterdam The Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Orthopedic Surgery OLVG, Shoulder and Elbow Unit Amsterdam The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lukas P. E.","family":"Verweij","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Human Movement Sciences Faculty of Behavioural and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences Amsterdam The Netherlands"},{"name":"Amsterdam Movement Sciences, Musculoskeletal Health Program Amsterdam The Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Amsterdam UMC, Department of Orthopedic Surgery and Sports Medicine, Location AMC University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Laurent A. M.","family":"Hendrickx","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Amsterdam UMC, Department of Orthopedic Surgery and Sports Medicine, Location AMC University of Amsterdam Amsterdam The Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Orthopaedic &amp; Trauma Surgery Flinders Medical Centre, Flinders University Adelaide South Australia Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Laurens J. H.","family":"Allaart","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alps Surgery Institute, Hand, Upper Limb, Peripheral Nerve, Brachial Plexus and Microsurgery Unit, Clinique G\u00e9n\u00e9rale Annecy France"},{"name":"Amsterdam Shoulder and Elbow Centre of Expertise (ASECE) Amsterdam The Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Human Movement Sciences Faculty of Behavioural and Movement Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam Movement Sciences Amsterdam The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"George S.","family":"Athwal","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Roth McFarlane Hand and Upper Limb Centre, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry Western University London Ontario Canada"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Thibault","family":"Lafosse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alps Surgery Institute, Hand, Upper Limb, Peripheral Nerve, Brachial Plexus and Microsurgery Unit, Clinique G\u00e9n\u00e9rale Annecy France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Laurent","family":"Lafosse","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Alps Surgery Institute, Hand, Upper Limb, Peripheral Nerve, Brachial Plexus and Microsurgery Unit, Clinique G\u00e9n\u00e9rale Annecy France"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Job N.","family":"Doornberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Orthopaedic &amp; Trauma Surgery Flinders Medical Centre, Flinders University Adelaide South Australia Australia"},{"name":"Department of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery, University Medical Center Groningen University of Groningen Groningen The Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jacobien H. 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