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Predicted negative outcome probabilities were compared to actual 5\u2010year outcomes.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The model, based on age, MDS\u2010UPDRS axial score and 60\u2010second animal fluency, predicted poor 5\u2010year outcome when applied at baseline, (area under the curve (AUC) 0.80), 2\u2009years (AUC 0.82) and 4\u2009years (AUC 0.71). Power calculations showed that selecting a subgroup with prognostic score &gt;0.5 reduced the sample size required for a disease\u2010modifying trial.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>This 5\u2010year prognostic model has good accuracy when employed up to 4\u2009years from diagnosis and may help stratification for disease\u2010modifying trials.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/mdc3.14215","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,30]],"date-time":"2024-09-30T02:36:29Z","timestamp":1727663789000},"page":"1441-1444","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":6,"title":["Validation of a 5\u2010Year Prognostic Model for Parkinson's Disease"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"11","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-5780-4767","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Joana","family":"Ribeiro","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Neurosciences University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Marta","family":"Camacho","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Neurosciences University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Kirsten M.","family":"Scott","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Neurosciences University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Julia C.","family":"Greenland","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Neurosciences University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jonathan R.","family":"Evans","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Nottingham University Hospital NHS Trust  Nottingham UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"David P.","family":"Breen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Clinical Brain Sciences University of Edinburgh  Edinburgh UK"},{"name":"Anne Rowling Regenerative Neurology Clinic University of Edinburgh  Edinburgh UK"},{"name":"Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics University of Edinburgh  Edinburgh UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ruwani S.","family":"Wijeyekoon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Neurosciences University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Roger A.","family":"Barker","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Neurosciences University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"},{"name":"Cambridge Stem Cell Institute University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-2648-9743","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Caroline H.","family":"Williams\u2010Gray","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Clinical Neurosciences University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jnnp-2013-305277"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.66.10_suppl_4.S50"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0000000000002437"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","unstructured":"VelseboerDC deBieRM WieskeL et al.Development and external validation of a prognostic model in newly\u2010diagnosed Parkinson's disease\u2014Appendix e\u20101; Published online February 17 2016.https:\/\/www.neurology.org\/doi\/10.1212\/WNL.0000000000002437. 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