{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,14]],"date-time":"2026-02-14T00:18:56Z","timestamp":1771028336830,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":32,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,15]],"date-time":"2023-06-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1686787200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["movementdisorders.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Movement Disorders"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>PREDICT\u2010PD is a United Kingdom population\u2010based study aiming to stratify individuals for future Parkinson's disease (PD) using a risk algorithm.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>A randomly selected, representative sample of participants in PREDICT\u2010PD were examined using several motor assessments, including the motor section of the Movement Disorder Society\u2010Sponsored Revision of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS\u2010UPDRS)\u2010III, at baseline (2012) and after an average of 6\u2009years of follow\u2010up. We checked for new PD diagnoses in participants seen at baseline and examined the association between risk scores and incident sub\u2010threshold parkinsonism, motor decline (increasing \u22655 points in MDS\u2010UPDRS\u2010III) and single motor domains in the MDS\u2010UPDRS\u2010III. We replicated analyses in two independent datasets (Bruneck and Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative [PPMI]).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>After 6\u2009years of follow\u2010up, the PREDICT\u2010PD higher\u2010risk group (n\u2009=\u200933) had a greater motor decline compared with the lower\u2010risk group (n\u2009=\u200995) (30% vs. 12.5%, <jats:italic>P<\/jats:italic>\u2009=\u20090.031). Two participants (both considered higher risk at baseline) were given a diagnosis of PD during follow\u2010up, with motor signs emerging between 2 and 5\u2009years before diagnosis. A meta\u2010analysis of data from PREDICT\u2010PD, Bruneck, and PPMI showed an association between PD risk estimates and incident sub\u2010threshold parkinsonism (odds ratio [OR], 2.01 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.55\u20132.61]), as well as new onset bradykinesia (OR, 1.69 [95% CI, 1.33\u20132.16]) and action tremor (OR, 1.61 [95% CI, 1.30\u20131.98]).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>Risk estimates using the PREDICT\u2010PD algorithm were associated with the occurrence of sub\u2010threshold parkinsonism, including bradykinesia and action tremor. The algorithm could also identify individuals whose motor examination experience a decline over time. \u00a9 2023 The Authors. <jats:italic>Movement Disorders<\/jats:italic> published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.29496","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,15]],"date-time":"2023-06-15T05:10:28Z","timestamp":1686805828000},"page":"1636-1644","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":9,"title":["The Emergence and Progression of Motor Dysfunction in Individuals at Risk of Parkinson's Disease"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"38","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5555-0283","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cristina","family":"Simonet","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Preventive Neurology Unit, Wolfson Institute of Population Health Queen Mary University of London  London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0671-0516","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Philipp","family":"Mahlknecht","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Neurology Innsbruck Medical University  Innsbruck Austria"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kathrin","family":"Marini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Neurology Innsbruck Medical University  Innsbruck Austria"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6503-1455","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Klaus","family":"Seppi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Neurology Innsbruck Medical University  Innsbruck Austria"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Aneet","family":"Gill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Preventive Neurology Unit, Wolfson Institute of Population Health Queen Mary University of London  London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jonathan P.","family":"Bestwick","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Preventive Neurology Unit, Wolfson Institute of Population Health Queen Mary University of London  London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andrew J.","family":"Lees","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Reta Lila Weston Institute of Neurological Studies University College London Queen Square Institute of Neurology  London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gavin","family":"Giovannoni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Preventive Neurology Unit, Wolfson Institute of Population Health Queen Mary University of London  London United Kingdom"},{"name":"Blizard Institute Queen Mary University  London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9872-6680","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Anette","family":"Schrag","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Reta Lila Weston Institute of Neurological Studies University College London Queen Square Institute of Neurology  London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3027-5497","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alastair J.","family":"Noyce","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Preventive Neurology Unit, Wolfson Institute of Population Health Queen Mary University of London  London United Kingdom"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3233\/JPD-150685"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.28777"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jnnp.51.6.745"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Improving estimation of Parkinson's disease risk\u2014the enhanced PREDICT\u2010PD algorithm","volume":"7","author":"Bestwick JP","year":"2021","journal-title":"npj Parkinson's Dis"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jnnp-2013-305420"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/jnnp-2016-314524"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41531-021-00226-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000348595"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.pneurobio.2011.09.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ana.23687"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0096260"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00415-017-8690-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mdc3.12798"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","first-page":"2020\u201303","article-title":"Maximising information on smell, quantitative motor impairment and probable REM\u2010sleep behaviour disorder in the prediction of Parkinson's disease","author":"Bestwick JP","year":"2020","journal-title":"medRxiv"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.21740"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.21198"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/WNL.0b013e3181fc29c9"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archneurol.2009.295"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.parkreldis.2014.12.021"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.28127"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.28145"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.27035"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.27281"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00415-019-09642-0"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.23740"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.21433"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/mds.24985"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1212\/01.WNL.0000072330.07328.D6"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199601113340202"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3233\/JPD-191849"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/STROKEAHA.111.623462"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0083948"}],"container-title":["Movement Disorders"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/movementdisorders.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/mds.29496","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,20]],"date-time":"2025-10-20T13:15:52Z","timestamp":1760966152000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/movementdisorders.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/mds.29496"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,15]]},"references-count":32,"journal-issue":{"issue":"9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2023,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/mds.29496"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/mds.29496","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0885-3185","1531-8257"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0885-3185","type":"print"},{"value":"1531-8257","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2023,6,15]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-03-08","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-05-24","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2023-06-15","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}