{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T19:00:18Z","timestamp":1785438018026,"version":"3.56.0"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,12]],"date-time":"2026-07-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783814400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,12]],"date-time":"2026-07-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1783814400000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Obesity"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>This study aimed to estimate potential launch prices of generic semaglutide following patent expiry in 2026 and to quantify the global obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) burden in countries where generic access may become possible.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>We used World Bank population data and World Obesity and Diabetes Atlas prevalence estimates to calculate obesity and T2DM burden. Patent status was identified using MedsPaL and cross\u2010checked with regional databases. We applied updated cost\u2010plus pricing methods using 2024\u20132025 Indian active pharmaceutical ingredient shipment data to estimate production costs for oral and injectable semaglutide, incorporating formulation, packaging, taxation, and profit assumptions.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Results<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Twelve countries with 2026 patent expiry account for 47% of obesity and 49% of T2DM globally. No patent filings were identified in 150 additional countries. By the end of 2026, generic injectable semaglutide could be available in 162 countries representing 69% of global T2DM and 84% of clinical obesity. Estimated generic injectable costs ranged from $28 to $140 per person\u2010year; oral formulations ranged from $186 to $380 per person\u2010year. Injection devices contributed disproportionately to total cost.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>\n                  <jats:sec>\n                    <jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title>\n                    <jats:p>Patent expiry may substantially expand access at lower prices, but device costs, secondary patents, and health system constraints could limit equitable uptake without coordinated policy action.<\/jats:p>\n                  <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/oby.70241","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,13]],"date-time":"2026-07-13T03:15:59Z","timestamp":1783912559000},"page":"1545-1550","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["How Low Could Semaglutide Prices Fall? An Analysis of Production Cost and Implications for Global Access"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"34","author":[{"given":"Jacob","family":"Levi","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"NHS Royal Free Hospital Trust  London UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8129-1919","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Samuel","family":"Cross","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Christchurch Hospital, Te Whatu Ora  New Zealand"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nydile","family":"Ramesh","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Hywel Dda Health Board, NHS Wales  Carmarthen UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Francois","family":"Venter","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"University of Witwatersrand  Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Andrew","family":"Hill","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Translational Medicine University of Liverpool  Liverpool UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization \u201cObesity and Overweight \u201dlast modified December 8 2025 https:\/\/www.who.int\/news\u2010room\/fact\u2010sheets\/detail\/obesity\u2010and\u2010overweight."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","unstructured":"World Health Organization \u201cNoncommunicable Diseases \u201dlast modified September 25 2025 https:\/\/www.who.int\/news\u2010room\/fact\u2010sheets\/detail\/noncommunicable\u2010diseases."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.healthplace.2015.06.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/nejmoa2307563"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.15605\/jafes.037.02.14"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/nejmoa1607141"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41591\u2010022\u201002026\u20104"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S2213\u20108587(25)00226\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/nejmoa2403347"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj\u20102025\u2010085304"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","unstructured":"T.Luhby \u201cOzempic Mounjaro and Hundreds of Other Drugs Become Even More Expensive in 2024 \u201dCNN Business February 15 2024 https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/15\/economy\/ozempic\u2010mounjaro\u2010drug\u2010prices\u2010increase\/index.html?ref=glp1.guide."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2024.3474"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","unstructured":"W.Jie \u201cExploring GLP\u20101 Weight Loss Drugs: Affordability and Accessibility \u201dNational High School Journal of Science published December 23 2025 https:\/\/nhsjs.com\/2025\/exploring\u2010glp\u20101\u2010weight\u2010loss\u2010drugs\u2010affordability\u2010and\u2010accessibility\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","unstructured":"B.Buntz \u201c2024's Blockbusters: Top 25 Drugs by Sales \u201dDrug Discovery & Development published April 4 2025 https:\/\/www.drugdiscoverytrends.com\/2024s\u2010blockbusters\u2010top\u201050\u2010pharmaceuticals\u2010by\u2010sales."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.lanmic.2025.101317"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjgh\u20102017\u2010000571"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s2055\u20106640(20)30691\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2024.0919"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","unstructured":"Health Tech World \u201cThe Year of Ozempic: An IP Take \u201dpublished August 6 2024 https:\/\/www.htworld.co.uk\/insight\/features\/the\u2010year\u2010of\u2010ozempic\u2010an\u2010ip\u2010take\u2010red23\/."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-024-02044-x"}],"container-title":["Obesity"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/oby.70241","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/oby.70241","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/oby.70241","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,30]],"date-time":"2026-07-30T18:30:09Z","timestamp":1785436209000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/oby.70241"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,12]]},"references-count":20,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,8]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/oby.70241"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/oby.70241","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1930-7381","1930-739X"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1930-7381","type":"print"},{"value":"1930-739X","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,7,12]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2026-03-03","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-05-13","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-07-12","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}