{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,10]],"date-time":"2026-10-10T02:07:42Z","timestamp":1791598062177,"version":"4.3.4"},"reference-count":66,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"3","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,18]],"date-time":"2019-10-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1571356800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Pest Management Science"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,3]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>BACKGROUND<\/jats:title><jats:p>The spatial structure of locust outbreaks is a major aspect of preventive management that relies on where survey teams have to be sent if they are to react in time to any upsurge. The concentration of areas propitious to outbreaks has been documented for many species. Areas where preventive management fails to collect information because of insecurity or remoteness constitute other limits. We explored these conditions using a spatially explicit multi\u2010agent model representing a preventive management system. We simulated areas where field teams had limited or no access and areas where the probability of initial outbreaks was concentrated in hotspots.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>RESULTS<\/jats:title><jats:p>A strong effort by the budget holder to maintain funding over time might be cancelled out with 5% of a territory having limited access. The larger the area of no access, the worse the proportion of plague years. Multiple no access areas generated more plagues than only one no access area of an equivalent size because more fronts must be controlled. Concentrating outbreaks in hotspots increased the probability of plagues. One hotspot alone was easier to control than several same\u2010sized hotspots. The period of the budget holder's cyclical behaviour between awareness and reduction in funding was longer with one hotspot than with several.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>CONCLUSION<\/jats:title><jats:p>These results highlight the need to consider the spatial conditions and accessibility of locust species when planning the sustainability of management systems. Despite significant budgets to set in place a preventive management system, cyclical locust outbreaks may be related to these spatial conditions. \u00a9 2019 Society of Chemical Industry<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/ps.5621","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,1]],"date-time":"2019-10-01T02:23:03Z","timestamp":1569896583000},"page":"1094-1102","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["The limitations of locust preventive management faced with spatial uncertainty: exploration with a multi\u2010agent model"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"76","author":[{"given":"Pierre\u2010Emmanuel","family":"Gay","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"CIRAD, UMR CBGP, F\u201034398 Montpellier  France"},{"name":"CBGP, CIRAD, INRA, IRD, Montpellier SupAgro, Univ. Montpellier  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4515-3505","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Michel","family":"Lecoq","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CIRAD, UMR CBGP, F\u201034398 Montpellier  France"},{"name":"CBGP, CIRAD, INRA, IRD, Montpellier SupAgro, Univ. Montpellier  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-9378-9404","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Cyril","family":"Piou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CIRAD, UMR CBGP, F\u201034398 Montpellier  France"},{"name":"CBGP, CIRAD, INRA, IRD, Montpellier SupAgro, Univ. Montpellier  Montpellier France"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,18]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ae\/43.3.183"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jee\/37.1.93"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","unstructured":"CABI CABI in review '14. CAB International Wallingford UK (2014). Available:https:\/\/www.cabi.org\/Uploads\/CABI\/about\u2010us\/4.8.1\u2010annual\u2010reviews\u2010and\u2010corporate\u2010accounts\/Cabiannualreview2014.pdf[14 September 2018]."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","first-page":"475","volume-title":"Grasshoppers and Locusts: A Handbook of General Acridology. I: Anatomy, Physiology, Development, Phase\u2010Polymorphism,  Introduction to Taxonomy","author":"Uvarov BP","year":"1966"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","first-page":"613","volume-title":"Grasshoppers and Locusts: A Handbook of General Acridology. II: Behaviour, Ecology, Biogeography, Population Dynamics","author":"Uvarov BP","year":"1977"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cub.2008.02.029"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0065-2806(08)36001-9"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Locusts and grasshoppers: behavior, ecology and biogeography","volume":"578327","author":"Latchininsky AV","year":"2011","journal-title":"Psyche"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1665\/1082-6467(2001)010[0277:RPIDAM]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1665\/1082-6467(2005)14[179:DLMFET]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","volume-title":"Madagascar Locust Crisis","author":"Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations","year":"2018"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","unstructured":"MillistNandAbdallaA Benefit\u2013cost analysis of Australian plague locust control operations for 2010\u201311. ABARES report prepared for the Australian Plague Locust Commission. Australian Bureau of Agricultural Research and Resource Economics and Sciences Canberra Australia (2011). Available:http:\/\/www.agriculture.gov.au\/SiteCollectionDocuments\/animal\u2010plant\/aplc\/research\u2010papers\/locust\u2010control\u201011.pdf[19 April 2019]."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","first-page":"690","volume-title":"The Locust and Grasshopper Agricultural Manual","author":"Centre for Overseas Pest Research","year":"1982"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","first-page":"180","volume-title":"Locust Handbook","author":"Steedman A","year":"1988"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1098\/rstb.1990.0125"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","first-page":"17","article-title":"The resurgence of the south American locust (Schistocerca cancellata)","volume":"37","author":"Medina HE","year":"2017","journal-title":"Metaleptea"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_1","first-page":"387","volume-title":"Guide to Locusts and Grasshoppers of Kazakhstan, Central Asia and Adjacent Territories","author":"Latchininsky AV","year":"2002"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_19_1","volume-title":"Locust Watch: Locusts in Caucasus and Central Asia","author":"Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations","year":"2010"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cropro.2008.08.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-ento-011118-112500"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1117\/1.JRS.7.075099"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.baae.2013.08.007"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1117\/1.JRS.7.075096"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_25_1","first-page":"226","article-title":"Surveillance, information sharing and early warning systems for transboundary plant pest diseases: the FAO experience","volume":"27","author":"Cressman K","year":"2009","journal-title":"Arab J Plant Prot"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1326-6756.2004.00433.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_27_1","first-page":"26","article-title":"Armed conflict in the central region of the desert locust's distribution, 1997\u20131999","volume":"2001","author":"Showler AT","year":"2001","journal-title":"Adv Appl Acridol"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1665\/1082-6467(2003)012[0127:TIOACT]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/ps.4648"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_30_1","first-page":"64","volume-title":"Rapport de l'\u00e9valuation \u00e0 mi\u2010parcours du programme EMPRES, composante Criquet p\u00e8lerin, en R\u00e9gion occidentale. Version finale","author":"Coss\u00e9e O","year":"2009"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_31_1","first-page":"41","volume-title":"\u00c9tude sur l'int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9conomique de la lutte pr\u00e9ventive contre le Criquet p\u00e8lerin","author":"Moussaoui M","year":"2010"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_32_1","first-page":"71","volume-title":"La lutte anti\u2010acridienne. Colloque international sur les perspectives de la recherche biologique et chimique dans le cadre de la lutte anti\u2010acridienne, Rabat, 27 November to 2 December 1989","author":"Lecoq M","year":"1991"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3917\/rac.027.0189"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_34_1","first-page":"92","volume-title":"Multilateral Evaluation of the 2003\u201305 Desert Locust Campaign. Towards a More Effective Response to Desert Locusts and their Impacts on Food Safety, Livelihoods and Poverty","author":"Brader L","year":"2006"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1684\/agr.2008.0232"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1665\/1082-6467(2001)010[0315:CWMLAG]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1142\/S0218127415501035"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_38_1","volume-title":"Proceedings of the Fourth International Locust Conference, Cairo, April 22nd 1936","author":"Uvarov BP","year":"1937"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1665\/1082-6467(2005)14[187:APMITD]2.0.CO;2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/eea.12505"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.baae.2017.10.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.agee.2006.03.028"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/B978-1-78548-105-5.50008-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_44_1","first-page":"3180","volume-title":"Encyclopedia of Entomology","author":"Lecoq M","year":"2008"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_45_1","volume-title":"Netlogo (Computer Software) Centre for Connected Learning and Computer\u2010Based Modeling","author":"Wilensky U","year":"1999"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2006.04.023"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ecolmodel.2010.08.019"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_48_1","first-page":"46","volume-title":"Desert Locust Guidelines 3: Information and Forecasting","author":"Cressman K","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_49_1","volume-title":"Desert Locust Forecasting: Art or Science?","author":"Cressman K","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_50_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-90-481-8606-8_7"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_51_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jinsphys.2010.05.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_52_1","first-page":"217","article-title":"Vers une solution durable au probl\u00e8me du Criquet p\u00e8lerin ?","volume":"15","author":"Lecoq M","year":"2004","journal-title":"S\u00e9cheresse"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_53_1","volume-title":"Locust Watch: Desert Locust Plagues","author":"Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations","year":"2009"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_54_1","volume-title":"Contributions de la France","author":"Roy J","year":"2001"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_55_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0007485300015236"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_56_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1017\/S0007485300050495"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_57_1","unstructured":"Franc A Impact des transformations m\u00e9sologiques sur la dynamique des populations et la gr\u00e9garisation du Criquet nomade dans le bassin de la Sofia (Madagascar). PhD thesis University Paul Val\u00e9ry: Montpellier 408 p. (2007)."},{"key":"e_1_2_6_58_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Migrations and breeding of the red locust (Nomadacris septemfasciata Serville) in Africa, 1927\u20101945","volume":"2","author":"Morant V","year":"1947","journal-title":"Anti\u2010Locust Memoir"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_59_1","first-page":"291","article-title":"A locust plague in the making: upsurges of the red locust, Nomadacris septemfasciata (Serville) in Buzi\u2010Gorongosa outbreak area, Mozambique in 1996","volume":"19","author":"Bahana JW","year":"1999","journal-title":"Insect Sci Appl"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_60_1","first-page":"12","article-title":"The international red locust control","volume":"11","author":"Br\u00e9do HJ","year":"1945","journal-title":"East Afr Agric J"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_61_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Le r\u00f4le de l'International Red Locust Control Service","volume":"151","author":"Br\u00e9do HJ","year":"1952","journal-title":"Bull Soc Belge \u00c9tud Expansion"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_62_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/1841425a0"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_63_1","first-page":"265","article-title":"Advances and review of strategies for red locust plague prevention: the control of red locust, Nomadacris septemfasciata (Serville) into the 21st century","volume":"19","author":"Bahana JW","year":"1999","journal-title":"Insect Sci Appl"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_64_1","first-page":"25","volume-title":"Workshop on Research Priorities for Migrant Pests of Agriculture in Southern Africa, Plant Protection Research Institute, Pretoria, South Africa, 24\u201326 March 1999","author":"Bahana JW","year":"2000"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_65_1","unstructured":"International Red Locust Control Organization for Central and Southern Africa Migratory pest situation during March 2019 and forecast for April to June 2019. International Red Locust Control Organization for Central and Southern Africa N'Dola Zambia: 4 pp (2019)"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_66_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s12571-015-0526-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_67_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.envsoft.2012.06.014"}],"container-title":["Pest Management Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fps.5621","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ps.5621","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/ps.5621","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ps.5621","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,21]],"date-time":"2025-10-21T13:11:39Z","timestamp":1761052299000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/ps.5621"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,18]]},"references-count":66,"journal-issue":{"issue":"3","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2020,3]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/ps.5621"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ps.5621","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1526-498X","1526-4998"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1526-498X","type":"print"},{"value":"1526-4998","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2019,10,18]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2019-07-29","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-09-13","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2019-10-18","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}