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In this context, we introduce a counterfactual\u2010based mediation analysis for a causal assessment of surrogacy. We use a multistate model for risk prediction to account for both direct transitions towards the clinical outcome and indirect transitions through the surrogate outcome. Within the counterfactual framework, we define natural direct and indirect effects with a causal interpretation. Based on these measures, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the clinical outcome mediated by the surrogate outcome. We estimate the proportion for both the cumulative risk and restricted mean time lost. We illustrate our approach by using 18\u2010year follow\u2010up data from the SPCG\u20104 randomized trial of radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer. 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