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A climate\u2010sensitive transmission model integrated with 11 years of clinical surveillance and facility\u2010level spatial risk data was applied to assess malaria elimination prospects in Zimbabwe's Mberengwa District. Under mid\u2010century warming in a high\u2010emission scenario, the peak infectious prevalence is projected to increase by more than 4\u2010fold, and the duration of high\u2010intensity transmission will increase from 213 to 250 days per year. Decadal seasonal oscillations in case counts were reproduced by the model, whereas recent overestimation reflected intensified elimination activities that suppressed transmission below climate\u2010driven expectations. Sensitivity analysis identified temperature\u2010dependent mosquito mortality as the dominant source of uncertainty, with insecticide\u2010based indoor spraying being the most influential, modifiable intervention. Simulations indicate that high\u2010coverage spraying alone can achieve elimination, and a fully integrated strategy, including bed nets, spraying and gametocyte\u2010targeting therapy, can reduce transmission by 85%. Spatial mapping of 37 health facility catchments highlighted five high\u2010priority hotspots concentrated in the southern and south\u2010eastern health facilities, where climate exposure and the current burden of disease converge. These results provide a locally informed, climate\u2010intelligent framework to support malaria elimination in the context of accelerating climate change.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/puh2.70375","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,16]],"date-time":"2026-09-16T02:36:45Z","timestamp":1789526205000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Predictive Modelling of Climate\u2010Driven Malaria Transmission for Optimal Control Using a Coupled SEIR\u2013SEI and GIS Framework"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"5","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-1436-8299","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Tafadzwa","family":"Chivasa","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Health Faculty of Environmental Science National University of Science and Technology  Bulawayo Zimbabwe"},{"name":"Department of Environmental Science Faculty of Environmental Science National University of Science and Technology  Bulawayo Zimbabwe"},{"name":"Department of Environmental Health Services Ministry of Health and Child Care Mberengwa District Hospital  Mberengwa Zimbabwe"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5857-5734","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Mlamuli","family":"Dhlamini","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Applied Mathematics Faculty of Applied Science National University of Science and Technology  Bulawayo Zimbabwe"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5153-9212","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Auther","family":"Maviza","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Science Faculty of Environmental Science National University of Science and Technology  Bulawayo Zimbabwe"},{"name":"Global Change Institute Faculty of Science University of Witwatersrand  Johannesburg South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8421-1478","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Wilfred Njabulo","family":"Nunu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Environmental Health Faculty of Environmental Science National University of Science and Technology  Bulawayo Zimbabwe"},{"name":"Department of Environmental Health School of Public Health Faculty of Health Sciences University of Botswana  Gaborone Botswana"},{"name":"Division of Public Health Faculty of Health Sciences University of the Free State  Bloemfontein South Africa"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_14_2_1","volume-title":"World Malaria Report 2023","author":"World Health Organization","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s0140\u20106736(25)00038\u20108"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4102\/jphia.v16i1.1346"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/s2542\u20105196(20)30178\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12015"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1029\/2022gh000698"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936\u2010020\u201003224\u20106"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41586\u2010025\u201010015\u2010z"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph21070877"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3390\/ijerph22040591"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_12_1","volume-title":"Zimbabwe Health Management Information System (HMIS) Annual Report","author":"Ministry of Health and Child Care (MOHCC)","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/11786329251374245"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/1476\u2010072x\u20105\u201020"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12936\u2010025\u201005624\u2010y"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11538\u2010008\u20109299\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12982-025-01167-4"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.21015\/vtse.v13i4.2231"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_19_1","volume-title":"Zimbabwe Population Census Report","author":"Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/00469580261419164"},{"key":"e_1_2_14_21_1","unstructured":"T.Chivasa A.Maviza M.Dhlamini andW. 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