{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,4]],"date-time":"2026-06-04T12:33:18Z","timestamp":1780576398437,"version":"3.54.1"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,29]],"date-time":"2024-07-29T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1722211200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000027","name":"National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AA030264"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AA030264"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000027","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000027","name":"National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["T32AA018108"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["T32AA018108"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000027","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000027","name":"National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R01AA022328"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01AA022328"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000027","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Personalized medicine promises the ability to improve patient outcomes by tailoring treatment recommendations to the likelihood that any given patient will respond well to a given treatment. It is important that predictions of treatment response be validated and replicated in independent data to support their use in clinical practice. In this paper, we propose and test an approach for validating predictions of individual treatment effects with continuous outcomes across samples that uses matching in a test (validation) sample to match individuals in the treatment and control arms based on their predicted treatment response and their predicted response under control. To examine the proposed validation approach, we conducted simulations where test data is generated from either an identical, similar, or unrelated process to the training data. We also examined the impact of nuisance variables. To demonstrate the use of this validation procedure in the context of predicting individual treatment effects in the treatment of alcohol use disorder, we apply our validation procedure using data from a clinical trial of combined behavioral and pharmacotherapy treatments. We find that the validation algorithm accurately confirms validation and lack of validation, and also provides insights into cases where test data were generated under similar, but not identical conditions. We also show that the presence of nuisance variables detrimentally impacts algorithm performance, which can be partially reduced though the use of variable selection methods. An advantage of the approach is that it can be widely applied to different predictive methods.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.10187","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,30]],"date-time":"2024-07-30T02:29:26Z","timestamp":1722306566000},"page":"4349-4360","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Validation of predicted individual treatment effects in out of sample respondents"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"43","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1917-3230","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alena","family":"Kuhlemeier","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Center on Alcohol, Substance Use, and Addictions University of New Mexico  Albuquerque New Mexico USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1096-188X","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Thomas","family":"Jaki","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Chair for Computational Statistics University of Regensburg  Regensburg Germany"},{"name":"MRC Biostatistics Unit University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Katie","family":"Witkiewitz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Center on Alcohol, Substance Use, and Addictions University of New Mexico  Albuquerque New Mexico USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Elizabeth A.","family":"Stuart","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health  Baltimore Maryland USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"M. Lee","family":"Van Horn","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Individual, Family, &amp; Community Education, College of Education and Human Sciences University of New Mexico  Albuquerque New Mexico USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,29]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamapsychiatry.2021.2500"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/acer.14183"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1182\/blood-2018-03-791392"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.critrevonc.2020.103038"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/acer.12669"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/pha0000613"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/sciadv.aax4043"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.copbio.2019.03.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9655"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1027\/2151-2604\/a000385"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/0003\u2010066X.59.4.224"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.psychres.2019.05.038"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/npp.2017.282"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0205971"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/ccp0000634"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0962280215623981"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9154"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","unstructured":"VegetabileBG.On the distinction between \u201cconditional average treatment effects (CATE)\u201d and \u201cindividual treatment effects (ITE)\u201d under ignorability assumptions.arXiv preprint arXiv:210804939.2021."},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1986.10478354"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9010"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9665"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/09622802211033640"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v042.i08"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/009053604000000067"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.295.17.2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/adb.12903"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/7854_2015_5006"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/00031305.1995.10476113"}],"container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.10187","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,11,17]],"date-time":"2024-11-17T09:38:45Z","timestamp":1731836325000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.10187"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,29]]},"references-count":28,"journal-issue":{"issue":"22","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,9,30]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/sim.10187"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sim.10187","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0277-6715","1097-0258"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0277-6715","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0258","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,7,29]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2023-09-29","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-07-16","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-07-29","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}