{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2024,4,2]],"date-time":"2024-04-02T15:11:28Z","timestamp":1712070688585},"reference-count":14,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"6","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2006,6,30]],"date-time":"2006-06-30T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1151625600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,3,15]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>The prediction of random effects corresponding to subject\u2010specific characteristics (e.g. means or rates of change) can be very useful in medical and epidemiologic research. At times, one may be most interested in obtaining accurate and\/or precise predictions for subjects whose characteristic places them in a tail of the distribution. While the typical posterior mean predictor dominates others in terms of overall mean squared error of prediction (MSEP), its tendency to \u2018overshrink\u2019 has motivated research into alternatives emphasizing other criteria. Here, we specifically target MSEP within a certain region (e.g. above a known cut\u2010off for high risk or a specified percentile of the random effect distribution), and we consider minimizing this quantity with and without constraints on overall MSEP efficiency. We use the normal\u2010theory random intercept model to derive prediction methods with potential to yield markedly better performance for subjects in the specified region, given a well\u2010controlled and (if desired) modest concession of overall MSEP. Criteria geared toward classification as well as overall and regional prediction unbiasedness are also provided. We evaluate the proposed techniques and illustrate them using repeated measures data on fasting blood glucose from type 2 diabetes patients. A simulation study verifies that theoretical properties and relative performances of the proposed predictors are essentially maintained when calculating them in practice based on estimated mixed linear model parameters. Straightforward extensions to incorporate covariates and additional random effects are briefly outlined. Copyright \u00a9 2006 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2614","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2006,6,30]],"date-time":"2006-06-30T18:25:54Z","timestamp":1151691954000},"page":"1285-1300","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":5,"title":["Improving point predictions of random effects for subjects at high risk"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"26","author":[{"given":"Robert H.","family":"Lyles","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Amita K.","family":"Manatunga","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Rene\u00e9 H.","family":"Moore","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"F.","family":"DuBois Bowman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Curtiss B.","family":"Cook","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,6,30]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2284231"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1984.10478062"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9780470316856"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9868.00135"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_2","volume-title":"SAS System for Mixed Models","author":"Littell RC","year":"1996"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1992.10475236"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_2","first-page":"63","volume-title":"Disease Mapping and Risk Assessment for Public Health","author":"Stern HS","year":"1999"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"431","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1986.10478287","article-title":"Comparisons of alternative predictors under the balanced one\u2010way random model","volume":"81","author":"Peixoto JL","year":"1986","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"issue":"1","key":"e_1_2_1_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"S33","DOI":"10.2337\/diacare.25.2007.S33","article-title":"Standards of medical care for patients with diabetes mellitus","volume":"25","author":"American Diabetes Association","year":"2002","journal-title":"Diabetes Care"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"977","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199309303291401","article-title":"The effect of intensive treatment of diabetes on the development and progression of long\u2010term complications in insulin\u2010dependent diabetes mellitus","volume":"329","author":"Diabetes Control and Complications Trial Research Group","year":"1993","journal-title":"New England Journal of Medicine"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.321.7258.405"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(19990115)18:1<35::AID-SIM995>3.0.CO;2-#"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_14_2","volume-title":"SAS\/IML Software: Changes and Enhancements through Release 6.11","author":"SAS Institute, Inc.","year":"1995"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF01588967"}],"container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fsim.2614","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.2614","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,11,14]],"date-time":"2023-11-14T20:39:27Z","timestamp":1699994367000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.2614"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2006,6,30]]},"references-count":14,"journal-issue":{"issue":"6","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2007,3,15]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/sim.2614"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sim.2614","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0277-6715","1097-0258"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0277-6715","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0258","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2006,6,30]]}}}