{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,5]],"date-time":"2026-10-05T07:48:30Z","timestamp":1791186510394,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":14,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"1","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2006,10,12]],"date-time":"2006-10-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1160611200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":7589,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1986,1]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>During the last few years Box\u2010Jenkins models have become of increasing importance in such fields as economics and industry. They have been used for forecasting and for detecting relations between different time series. Similar applications are also relevant in epidemiology.<\/jats:p><jats:p>Since many people who are concerned with the analysis of medical data are not familiar with this subject, a short non\u2010technical introduction to Box\u2010Jenkins models is given. The model\u2010building process is demonstrated in some detail using monthly case reports of the two seasonal endemic diseases chicken\u2010pox and mumps, and the relation between these two time series is investigated. It is found that both diseases may be represented by simple models which have basically the same statistical structure and that they are related at time\u2010lag O but not at other time\u2010lags.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780050107","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,4,24]],"date-time":"2007-04-24T16:05:20Z","timestamp":1177430720000},"page":"37-47","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":65,"title":["Box\u2010jenkins modelling of some viral infectious diseases"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"5","author":[{"given":"Ulrich","family":"Helfenstein","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2006,10,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_2","volume-title":"The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases","author":"Bailey N. T. J.","year":"1975"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2342553"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_2","volume-title":"Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control","author":"Box G. E. P.","year":"1976"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"70","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1975.10480264","article-title":"Intervention and analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems","volume":"70","author":"Box G. E. P.","year":"1975","journal-title":"Journal of the American Statistical Association"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a121575"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a121576"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-2923-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_2","unstructured":"Jenkins G. M.Practical Experiences with Modelling and Forecasting Time Series Gwilym Jenkins & Partners (Overseas) Ltd. St. Helier 1979."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2982488"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/65.2.297"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/10.1.87"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_2","volume-title":"Statistical Methods in Medical Research","author":"Armitage P.","year":"1971"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_14_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a113090"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_15_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a113091"}],"container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fsim.4780050107","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.4780050107","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,10,21]],"date-time":"2023-10-21T00:55:48Z","timestamp":1697849748000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.4780050107"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[1986,1]]},"references-count":14,"journal-issue":{"issue":"1","published-print":{"date-parts":[[1986,1]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/sim.4780050107"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sim.4780050107","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0277-6715","1097-0258"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0277-6715","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0258","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[1986,1]]}}}