{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,10,3]],"date-time":"2026-10-03T14:09:58Z","timestamp":1791036598963,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":22,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2007,2,28]],"date-time":"2007-02-28T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1172620800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":4231,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[1995,7,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:p>An extension of the back\u2010calculation method to reconstruct the past history of HIV infections is presented. In this method the HIV infection intensity, as a function of age and calender time, is assumed to belong to a family of parametric functions and is back\u2010calculated from the observed AIDS incidence cases, knowledge of the incubation period and of the susceptible population, the final model being chosen as the one that gives the best fit. The model allows for the interaction between age and calendar time. The application to the main risk groups in Italy, male IVDUs and homosexuals, showed that age and the susceptible population were important in estimating the epidemic among IVDUs; interaction between age and calendar time was found to be significant, showing that among young IVDUs the risk of infection decreased faster than among older IVDUs. Sensitivity of the estimates to the assumption of population and choice of the infection function is investigated.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780141403","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2007,4,29]],"date-time":"2007-04-29T01:46:38Z","timestamp":1177811198000},"page":"1513-1530","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["A back\u2010calculation method to estimate the age and period HIV infection intensity, considering the susceptible population"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"14","author":[{"given":"Arduino","family":"Verdecchia","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Angela B.","family":"Mariotto","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2007,2,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_1_2_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780080207"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_3_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a116303"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_4_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780090615"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_5_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/80.1.165"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_6_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.81.10.1307"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_7_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780122415"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_8_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1988.10478599"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_9_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2347592"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_10_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1126\/science.2063206"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_11_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2532455"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_12_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4899-3242-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_13_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/oxfordjournals.aje.a115665"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_14_2","unstructured":"Mariotto A. B. Mariotti S. Rezza G.andVerdecchia A.\u2018Influence anti\u2010retroviral treatment on the AIDS incubation period in a cohort of newly HIV infected subjects in Italy\u2019 IX International Conference on AIDS Berlin Abstract PO\u2010C04\u20102678 1993."},{"key":"e_1_2_1_15_2","first-page":"209","article-title":"Sottonotifica della mortalit\u00e1 per AIDS in Italia: confronto tra dati di sorveglianza e dati ufficiali di mortalit\u00e1","volume":"3","author":"Conti S.","year":"1992","journal-title":"Giornale Italiano dell' AIDS"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_16_2","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00002030-199410000-00013"},{"key":"e_1_2_1_17_2","first-page":"523","article-title":"Sensitivity analysis for the backcalculation method of AIDS projections","volume":"5","author":"Wilson S. 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