{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,12]],"date-time":"2026-09-12T01:46:05Z","timestamp":1789177565413,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"15","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,3,24]],"date-time":"2015-03-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1427155200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/3.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2015,9,1]],"date-time":"2015-09-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1441065600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":161,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000265","name":"Medical Research Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["MR\/K014838\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["MR\/K014838\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000265","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2015,7,10]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a quasi\u2010experimental design that estimates the causal effects of a treatment by exploiting naturally occurring treatment rules. It can be applied in any context where a particular treatment or intervention is administered according to a pre\u2010specified rule linked to a continuous variable. Such thresholds are common in primary care drug prescription where the RD design can be used to estimate the causal effect of medication in the general population. Such results can then be contrasted to those obtained from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and inform prescription policy and guidelines based on a more realistic and less expensive context. In this paper, we focus on statins, a class of cholesterol\u2010lowering drugs, however, the methodology can be applied to many other drugs provided these are prescribed in accordance to pre\u2010determined guidelines. Current guidelines in the UK state that statins should be prescribed to patients with 10\u2010year cardiovascular disease risk scores in excess of 20%. If we consider patients whose risk scores are close to the 20%\u2009risk score threshold, we find that there is an element of random variation in both the risk score itself and its measurement. We can therefore consider the threshold as a randomising device that assigns statin prescription to individuals just above the threshold and withholds it from those just below. Thus, we are effectively replicating the conditions of an RCT in the area around the threshold, removing or at least mitigating confounding. We frame the RD design in the language of conditional independence, which clarifies the assumptions necessary to apply an RD design to data, and which makes the links with instrumental variables clear. We also have context\u2010specific knowledge about the expected sizes of the effects of statin prescription and are thus able to incorporate this into Bayesian models by formulating informative priors on our causal parameters. \u00a9\u20092015 The Authors.<jats:italic>Statistics in Medicine<\/jats:italic>Published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.6486","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2015,3,25]],"date-time":"2015-03-25T06:40:35Z","timestamp":1427265635000},"page":"2334-2352","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":30,"title":["Bayesian regression discontinuity designs: incorporating clinical knowledge in the causal analysis of primary care data"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"34","author":[{"given":"Sara","family":"Geneletti","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics London School of Economics, LondonU.K."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Aidan G.","family":"O'Keeffe","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistical Science University College London, LondonU.K."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Linda D.","family":"Sharples","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Leeds Institute of Clinical Trials Research University of Leeds, LeedsU.K."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sylvia","family":"Richardson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC Biostatistics Unit Cambridge U.K."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4314-2570","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gianluca","family":"Baio","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistical Science University College London, LondonU.K."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2015,3,24]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_9_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1037\/h0044319"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-2354.t01-1-00055"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1467-9914.2008.00419.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2007.05.004"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1999.10473857"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jeconom.2007.05.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1468-0262.00183"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2105\/AJPH.86.5.691"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ije\/dyn253"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.g5293"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0000000000000138"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/hec.3027"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_14_1","unstructured":"NICE.Quick reference guide: Statins for the prevention of cardiovascular events 2008."},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_9_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"266","DOI":"10.1080\/10618600.1997.10474742","article-title":"Spline estimation of discontinuous regression functions","volume":"6","author":"Koo JY","year":"1997","journal-title":"Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9868.00272"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1162\/0033553041502153"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"45","DOI":"10.1093\/oso\/9780198510550.003.0005","volume-title":"Highly Structured Stochastic Systems","author":"Dawid AP","year":"2003"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1979.tb01052.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/09-STS316"},{"key":"e_1_2_9_21_1","unstructured":"deChaisemartinC.All you need is late. 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