{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,13]],"date-time":"2026-05-13T09:58:36Z","timestamp":1778666316356,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":28,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"16","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,7]],"date-time":"2016-02-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1454803200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,7]],"date-time":"2016-02-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1454803200000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,7]],"date-time":"2016-02-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1454803200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000066","name":"National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["5R01ES014843-02"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["5R01ES014843-02"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000066","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000066","name":"National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["R01ES020619"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R01ES020619"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000066","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000066","name":"National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","award":["T32ES007018"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["T32ES007018"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000066","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,7,20]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>Epidemiologic studies suggest that maternal ambient air pollution exposure during critical periods of pregnancy is associated with adverse effects on fetal development. In this work, we introduce new methodology for identifying critical periods of development during post\u2010conception gestational weeks 2\u20138 where elevated exposure to particulate matter less than 2.5\u2009\u00b5m (PM<jats:sub>2.5<\/jats:sub>) adversely impacts development of the heart. Past studies have focused on highly aggregated temporal levels of exposure during the pregnancy and have failed to account for anatomical similarities between the considered congenital heart defects. We introduce a multinomial probit model in the Bayesian setting that allows for joint identification of susceptible daily periods during pregnancy for 12 types of congenital heart defects with respect to maternal PM<jats:sub>2.5<\/jats:sub> exposure. We apply the model to a dataset of mothers from the National Birth Defect Prevention Study where daily PM<jats:sub>2.5<\/jats:sub> exposures from post\u2010conception gestational weeks 2\u20138 are assigned using predictions from the downscaler pollution model. This approach is compared with two aggregated exposure models that define exposure as the average value over post\u2010conception gestational weeks 2\u20138 and the average over individual weeks, respectively. Results suggest an association between increased PM<jats:sub>2.5<\/jats:sub> exposure on post\u2010conception gestational day 53 with the development of pulmonary valve stenosis and exposures during days 50 and 51 with tetralogy of Fallot. Significant associations are masked when using the aggregated exposure models. Simulation study results suggest that the findings are robust to multiple sources of error. The general form of the model allows for different exposures and health outcomes to be considered in future applications. Copyright \u00a9 2016 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.6891","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,2,8]],"date-time":"2016-02-08T03:44:43Z","timestamp":1454903083000},"page":"2786-2801","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":24,"title":["Bayesian multinomial probit modeling of daily windows of susceptibility for maternal PM<sub>2.5<\/sub> exposure and congenital heart defects"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"35","author":[{"given":"Joshua L.","family":"Warren","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics Yale School of Public Health  New Haven CT U.S.A."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Jeanette A.","family":"Stingone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Preventive Medicine Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai  New York NY U.S.A."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Amy H.","family":"Herring","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics UNC Gillings School of Global Public Health  Chapel Hill NC U.S.A."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Thomas J.","family":"Luben","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development USA Environmental Protection Agency  Research Triangle Park NC U.S.A."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Montserrat","family":"Fuentes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Statistics North Carolina State University  Raleigh NC U.S.A."}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Arthur S.","family":"Aylsworth","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Pediatrics and Genetics University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill  Chapel Hill NC 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