{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,24]],"date-time":"2026-09-24T10:13:04Z","timestamp":1790244784642,"version":"4.1.0"},"reference-count":48,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,19]],"date-time":"2016-05-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1463616000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,19]],"date-time":"2016-05-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1463616000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,19]],"date-time":"2016-05-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1463616000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-nc-nd\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000226","name":"Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (MOHLTC)","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000226","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"crossref"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,30]]},"abstract":"<jats:p>\n                    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points\u2010based risk\u2010scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points\u2010based risk\u2010scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points\u2010based risk\u2010scoring systems facilitates evidence\u2010based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause\u2010specific mortality and in non\u2010fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points\u2010based risk\u2010scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk\u2010scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. \u00a9 2016 The Authors.\n                    <jats:italic>Statistics in Medicine<\/jats:italic>\n                    published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.6994","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,21]],"date-time":"2016-05-21T17:39:22Z","timestamp":1463852362000},"page":"4056-4072","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":106,"title":["Developing points\u2010based risk\u2010scoring systems in the presence of competing risks"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"35","author":[{"given":"Peter C.","family":"Austin","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences Toronto Ontario Canada"},{"name":"Institute of Health Management, Policy, and Evaluation University of Toronto Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Schulich Heart Research Program Sunnybrook Research Institute Toronto Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Douglas S.","family":"Lee","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences Toronto Ontario Canada"},{"name":"Institute of Health Management, Policy, and Evaluation University of Toronto Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Department of Medicine University of Toronto Toronto Canada"},{"name":"Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine University Health Network Toronto Canada"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ralph B.","family":"D'Agostino","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Mathematics and Statistics Boston University Boston MA U.S.A."},{"name":"Harvard Clinical Research Institute Harvard University Boston MA U.S.A."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jason P.","family":"Fine","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics University of North Carolina Chapel Hill NC U.S.A."},{"name":"Department of Statistics and Operations Research University of North Carolina Chapel Hill NC U.S.A."}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.7326\/0003-4819-55-1-33"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/01.CIR.97.18.1837"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.290.19.2581"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cct.2012.01.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.291.22.2727"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archinte.163.19.2345"},{"issue":"6","key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1659","DOI":"10.1161\/01.CIR.91.6.1659","article-title":"Predictors of 30\u2010day mortality in the era of reperfusion for acute myocardial infarction. Results from an international trial of 41,021 patients. GUSTO\u2010I Investigators","volume":"91","author":"Lee KL","year":"1995","journal-title":"Circulation"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/01.CIR.102.17.2031"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.gheart.2013.01.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjcard.2004.03.023"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/(SICI)1097-0258(20000615\/30)19:11\/12<1495::AID-SIM441>3.0.CO;2-E"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.108.816694"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwp107"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2712"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1532-5415.2010.02767.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/sj.bjc.6602102"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1993.10476289"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.115.017719"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4780120803"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/03461238.1978.10414325"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_6_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"371","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.3797","article-title":"Patient death as a censoring event or competing risk event in models of nursing home placement","volume":"29","author":"Szychowski JM","year":"2008","journal-title":"Statistics in Medicine"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/MLR.0b013e3181d99107"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/eurheartj\/ehu131"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_25_1","volume-title":"Analysis of Survival Data","author":"Cox D","year":"1984"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_26_1","volume-title":"Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data","author":"Lawless JF","year":"1982"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781118032985"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1999.10474144"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1958.10501452"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_30_1","first-page":"141","article-title":"An empirical transition matrix for nonhomogeneous Markov chains based on censored observations","volume":"5","author":"Aalen OO","year":"1978","journal-title":"Scandinavian Journal of Statistics"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4384"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e3181a39056"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/S0895-4356(02)00453-5"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1742"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.2331"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.1687"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2009.1731"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/kxt059"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2012.09.017"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4757-3462-1"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-0-387-77244-8"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.107.742155"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.115.002414"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.115.002503"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.annemergmed.2010.09.018"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.285.22.2864"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1161\/CIRCULATIONAHA.111.060061"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_48_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2532098"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_49_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.2307\/2534009"}],"updated-by":[{"DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7591","type":"correction","label":"Correction","source":"publisher","updated":{"date-parts":[[2017,12,18]],"date-time":"2017-12-18T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1513555200000}}],"container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fsim.6994","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fsim.6994","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.6994","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2024,6,16]],"date-time":"2024-06-16T17:13:02Z","timestamp":1718557982000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.6994"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,19]]},"references-count":48,"journal-issue":{"issue":"22","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2016,9,30]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/sim.6994"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sim.6994","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0277-6715","1097-0258"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0277-6715","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0258","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2016,5,19]]}}}