{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,19]],"date-time":"2026-05-19T12:06:09Z","timestamp":1779192369138,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8-9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,7]],"date-time":"2026-04-07T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1775520000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":6,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]],"date-time":"2026-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1775001600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>\n                    Screening and surveillance programs for cancer, such as colorectal cancer (CRC), often yield electronic health records (EHR) of screening time, test results, and covariates. We consider EHR from CRC surveillance of individuals who have a high cancer risk due to their family history. These individuals, therefore, receive regular colonoscopies with the goal of finding and removing adenomas, precursor lesions to CRC. Our objective is to estimate time to adenoma incidence and explore associations with covariates. However, in doing so, several challenges of the CRC surveillance EHR have to be addressed. Importantly, the adenoma events are interval\u2010censored, meaning the exact event times are unknown and only fall within intervals defined by colonoscopy visits. Furthermore, colonoscopies can miss adenomas due to human or technical error, leading to misclassification of individuals with adenomas as adenoma\u2010free. Finally, the EHR data include individuals with adenomas at baseline, termed prevalent cases. This prevalence status may be unobserved if the baseline colonoscopy is missing or fails to detect existing adenomas. To address these challenges in the CRC EHR, and screening data in general, we develop a new prevalence\u2010incidence mixture model (PIM) with a Bayesian estimation back\u2010end through data augmentation and regularization priors. We show how to fit the model, estimate cumulative incidence functions, and evaluate model fit using information criteria as well as a non\u2010parametric estimator. In extensive simulations, we show good performance of the model when informative priors on the test sensitivity are provided, which is usually possible. An implementation in the\n                    <jats:styled-content>R<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    package\n                    <jats:styled-content>BayesPIM<\/jats:styled-content>\n                    is provided.\n                  <\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.70433","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,7]],"date-time":"2026-04-07T08:26:37Z","timestamp":1775550397000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["A Bayesian Prevalence\u2010Incidence Mixture Model for Screening Outcomes With Misclassification"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"45","author":[{"given":"Thomas","family":"Klausch","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Data Science Amsterdam University Medical Center, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam  Amsterdam North Holland the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9448-1826","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Birgit I.","family":"Lissenberg\u2010Witte","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Data Science Amsterdam University Medical Center, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam  Amsterdam North Holland the Netherlands"},{"name":"Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Department of Data Science and Biostatistics University Medical Center, Utrecht University  Utrecht the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Veerle M. H.","family":"Coup\u00e9","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Data Science Amsterdam University Medical Center, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam  Amsterdam North Holland the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,7]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_13_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7380"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/17-AOAS1036"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-statistics-031017-100101"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_5_1","unstructured":"L. C.Cheung N.Hyun X.Xiong Q.Pan andH. A.Katki \u201cPackage PIMixture \u201d (2023) https:\/\/dceg.cancer.gov\/tools\/analysis\/pimixture\/pimixture.pdf. Published January 9 2023 accessed December 17 2025."},{"key":"e_1_2_13_6_1","unstructured":"National Cancer Institute \u201cPrevalence Incidence Mixture Models \u201d (2025) https:\/\/dceg.cancer.gov\/tools\/analysis\/pimixture. Published February 28 2023 accessed December 17 2025."},{"key":"e_1_2_13_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaoncol.2018.4270"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajog.2020.10.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.8544"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1572-0241.2006.00390.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/sjos.12113"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v081.i12"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7373"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.2517-6161.1976.tb01597.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1467-9884.00351"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.18637\/jss.v038.i08"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.13261"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.12296"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/09622802231160550"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9449"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/22-AOAS1669"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2015.62.2035"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/9781119013563"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1993.10476321"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1994.10476829"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s11222-013-9416-2"},{"key":"e_1_2_13_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b16018"}],"container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.70433","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/sim.70433","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.70433","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,19]],"date-time":"2026-05-19T11:21:08Z","timestamp":1779189668000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.70433"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8-9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/sim.70433"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sim.70433","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0277-6715","1097-0258"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0277-6715","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0258","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-03-23","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-01-26","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-04-07","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e70433"}}