{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,19]],"date-time":"2026-05-19T12:06:14Z","timestamp":1779192374953,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":26,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"8-9","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,17]],"date-time":"2026-04-17T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1776384000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":16,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,1]],"date-time":"2026-04-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1775001600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000853","name":"University of Glasgow","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["EP\/X525716\/1"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["EP\/X525716\/1"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000853","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100019186","name":"HORIZON EUROPE Innovative Europe","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["856612"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["856612"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100019186","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004586","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["E\u201026\/204.098\/2024"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["E\u201026\/204.098\/2024"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004586","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["302603\/2025\u20105"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["302603\/2025\u20105"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Surveillance of severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in Brazil provides an early warning system for respiratory outbreaks, including COVID\u201019, and statistical nowcasting methods are vital for correcting long and variable reporting delays that would otherwise hinder timely decision\u2010making. Coherent joint prediction of SARI and COVID\u2010positive SARI in Brazil could improve outbreak response planning and hospital resource management, but most existing nowcasting methods only target one outcome at a time. Furthermore, existing approaches usually focus solely on reconstructing recent incidence rather than forecasting future trends, which could support more proactive risk mitigation. Here, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical framework for joint nowcasting and short\u2010term forecasting of two outcomes, where one is a strict subset of the other. Building on the generalized\u2010Dirichlet\u2010multinomial (GDM) method for correcting delayed reporting, a new beta\u2010binomial component links SARI and COVID\u2010positive counts, while separate conditional GDM components capture their distinct delay patterns. To allow for changes over time in the level of disease and delay distributions, flexible latent effects are included in all model components. Using national surveillance data from 2021 to 2024, we conduct a 20\u2010date rolling prediction experiment across Brazil's 27 federative units. Compared to a well\u2010established Bayesian nowcasting approach, our joint model achieves about one\u2010third lower mean absolute error and continuous ranked probability score for contemporaneous nowcasts, with the largest gains in high\u2010incidence regions. Meanwhile, energy scores indicate improved calibration for joint forecasts of total and COVID\u2010positive SARI relative to comparable independent models.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.70529","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,18]],"date-time":"2026-04-18T02:56:51Z","timestamp":1776481011000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Joint Bayesian Nowcasting of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness and COVID\u201019 Positives in Brazil"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"45","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8959-2326","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Alba","family":"Halliday","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Imperial College London  London UK"},{"name":"School of Mathematics and Statistics University of Glasgow  Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-0612-4306","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Oliver","family":"Stoner","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"School of Mathematics and Statistics University of Glasgow  Glasgow UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8697-1518","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Theo","family":"Economou","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Mathematics and Statistics University of Exeter  Exeter UK"},{"name":"Climate and Atmosphere Research Center The Cyprus Institute  Nicosia Cyprus"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Leonardo Soares","family":"Bastos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Instituto de Matem\u00e1tica Pura e Aplicada e Tecnologia IMPATech  Rio de Janeiro Brazil"},{"name":"Programa de Computa\u00e7\u00e3o Cient\u00edfica Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Oswaldo Cruz  Rio de Janeiro Brazil"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,4,17]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.13810"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","volume-title":"Ranking (IDHM) \u2014 atlas do desenvolvimento humano no brasil","author":"Brasil A.","year":"2025"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","unstructured":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz) \u201cInfo gripe\u2013monitoramento de casos de s\u00edndrome respirat\u00f3ria aguda grave (SRAG) \u201d(2025) http:\/\/info.gripe.fiocruz.br. accessed 16\u2010January\u20102024 online."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.8303"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","unstructured":"Observat\u00f3rio COVID\u201019 BR \u201cInforma\u00e7\u00f5es T\u00e9cnicas \u201d(2024) accessed 16 January 2024 https:\/\/covid19br.github.io. Online."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1007735"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.13188"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","unstructured":"R.Yaari R. Z.Tello S.McGough et al. \u201cNobBS: Nowcasting by Bayesian Smoothing \u201d(2025) R package version 1.1.0 https:\/\/CRAN.R\u2010project.org\/package=NobBS."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1010767"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.12194"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.202000112"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.12079"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/biom.13071"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/rssc.12576"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/aje\/kwac034"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","unstructured":"Ministry of Health Brazil \u201cOpenDataSUS \u201d(2025) https:\/\/opendatasus.saude.gov.br\/en\/dataset\/srag\u20102021\u2010a\u20102024. accessed 2025\u2010September\u201017 online."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","unstructured":"R.Lopes T.Portella M.Gomes andL.Bastos \u201cnowcaster: Nowcaster \u201d(2025) R package version 1.0.0."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.201400159"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","volume-title":"Proceedings of the 65th ISI World Statistics Congress","author":"Santos G.","year":"2025"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b16018"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","volume-title":"R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing","author":"R Core Team","year":"2023"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/10618600.2016.1172487"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/ss\/1177011136"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","unstructured":"M.Plummer \u201crjags: Bayesian Graphical Models Using MCMC \u201d(2025) R package version 4\u201317 https:\/\/CRAN.R\u2010project.org\/package=rjags."},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/016214506000001437"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pcbi.1008618"}],"container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.70529","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/sim.70529","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.70529","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,19]],"date-time":"2026-05-19T11:22:43Z","timestamp":1779189763000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.70529"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]},"references-count":26,"journal-issue":{"issue":"8-9","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/sim.70529"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sim.70529","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0277-6715","1097-0258"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0277-6715","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0258","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,4]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-10-28","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-03-24","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-04-17","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e70529"}}