{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]],"date-time":"2026-06-23T10:48:49Z","timestamp":1782211729676,"version":"3.54.5"},"reference-count":33,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"13-14","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]],"date-time":"2026-06-12T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1781222400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":11,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,1]],"date-time":"2026-06-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1780272000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["405025\/2021\u20101"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["405025\/2021\u20101"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100003593","name":"Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cient\u00edfico e Tecnol\u00f3gico","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["304268\/2021\u20106"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["304268\/2021\u20106"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100003593","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004901","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["APQ\u201000674\u201024"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APQ\u201000674\u201024"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004901","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004901","name":"Funda\u00e7\u00e3o de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["APQ\u201001748\u201024"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["APQ\u201001748\u201024"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004901","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Pool Testing is a strategy introduced by Robert Dorfman in 1943 to address a common problem in pandemics: the high cost of large\u2010scale testing. This two\u2010phase pool test strategy consists of dividing the initial sample into smaller subsamples of equal size (pools) and conducting a combined test on the individuals within each pool. Given a positive result, all individuals in the pool are individually tested. Otherwise, all individuals in the pool will be considered healthy without further testing. Consequently, for the same sample, the number of tests (testing cost) performed is a random variable, which depends on the proportion of infected individuals and their allocation in the pools. We propose a probabilistic way to evaluate the performance of the two\u2010phase Dorfman's pool testing, obtaining the distribution for its relative cost. We consider the prior knowledge about disease prevalence to build the prior distribution of the probability of a pool testing positive. We also obtain the sensitivity and specificity of the overall (full) pool testing procedure. The relative cost for the pool testing is evaluated for populations experiencing different prevalences, pool of different sizes, and also assuming gold\u2010standard tests with different specificity and sensitivity. The proposed approach is applied to estimate the cost of Pool Testing on real data. We obtained the probability that the relative cost is higher than one, providing a tool to assess the risk of the adopted strategies.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.70631","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,13]],"date-time":"2026-06-13T03:02:01Z","timestamp":1781319721000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Evaluation and Inference of Pool Testing Costs Using a Probabilistic Perspective"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"45","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0008-5594-2472","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Bernardo S.","family":"Scaldaferri","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Estat\u00edstica Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6554-9799","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rosangela H.","family":"Loschi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Estat\u00edstica Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais  Minas Gerais Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5688-4824","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Murilo S.","family":"Costa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Departamento de Ci\u00eancias da Sa\u00fade Universidade Federal do Esp\u00edrito Santo  Esp\u00edrito Santo Brazil"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,12]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jcv.2020.104382"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/aoms\/1177731363"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.31744\/einstein_journal\/2023AE0115"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/d41586-020-02053-6"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00431-023-05183-x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/0037-8682-0276-2021"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/00007435-199910000-00004"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.prevetmed.2021.105294"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1537-2995.1999.39101141.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1128\/JCM.05631-11"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa1714977"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9532"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1537-2995.2005.04242.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1086\/302894"},{"issue":"3","key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","first-page":"339","article-title":"Pooling in High\u2010Throughput Drug Screening","volume":"12","author":"Kainkaryam R.","year":"2009","journal-title":"Current Opinion in Drug Discovery & Development"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1590\/s1679-49742022000100002"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.1999.00231.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biostatistics\/kxs045"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7455"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.8916"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","volume-title":"Investigao do SARS\u2010CoV\u20102 Para Rastreamento da COVID\u201019 Por Meio da RT\u2010PCR em Pool Testing (in Portuguese)","author":"Costa M. S.","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jcla.24413"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ijid.2021.10.038"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0243692"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9003"},{"issue":"7","key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","article-title":"Statistical Modeling and Evaluation of the Impact of Multiplicity Classification Thresholds on the COVID\u201019 Pool Testing Accuracy","volume":"19","author":"Cruz C. 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P.Dawson \u201cGroup Testing With Nested Pools \u201d2020 https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2005.13650."}],"container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.70631","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/sim.70631","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.70631","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,23]],"date-time":"2026-06-23T10:16:50Z","timestamp":1782209810000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.70631"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"references-count":33,"journal-issue":{"issue":"13-14","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/sim.70631"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sim.70631","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0277-6715","1097-0258"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0277-6715","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0258","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,6]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-06-19","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-05-26","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-06-12","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e70631"}}