{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T08:09:45Z","timestamp":1790150985569,"version":"4.0.1"},"reference-count":16,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"20-22","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787616000000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1787616000000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000054","name":"National Cancer Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["U01 CA253915"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["U01 CA253915"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000054","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000054","name":"National Cancer Institute","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["R35 CA274442"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["R35 CA274442"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000054","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Prostate cancer patients with biochemical recurrence (BCR) face a decision of whether to start salvage therapy (ST), which may reduce the probability of metastatic progression at the cost of side effects. To inform the decision to start ST at or after BCR, models that make counterfactual predictions incorporating treatment are highly desirable. However, estimation of such models using observational data requires care due to time\u2010varying confounding by the longitudinal biomarker prostate\u2010specific antigen (PSA). Moreover, a careful definition of the estimands of interest, referred to as \u201cpredictimands\u201d, is required due to the possibility of delayed initiation of treatment after biochemical recurrence. In this study, we utilize the framework of joint longitudinal and survival models to tackle these issues, estimating a model for pre\u2010ST PSA trajectories and risk of metastasis that incorporates the effect of ST, from a dataset of 2075 patients with BCR. We define relevant predictimands for a new patient after BCR under three scenarios: Immediately treated, never treated, and treatment under a dynamic regime, where ST is started when PSA is observed to exceed a pre\u2010specified threshold. We propose a Monte Carlo scheme for computing these predictimands, adapting previous work on dynamic predictions from joint models to account for treatment timing. This methodology is applied to an example patient and validated in a simulation study. This methodology could be adapted to a wide variety of applications requiring counterfactual predictions in the presence of time\u2010varying treatments and biomarkers. Code to implement such analyses is available in the R package JMbayes2.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.70710","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]],"date-time":"2026-08-25T09:44:55Z","timestamp":1787651095000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Dynamic Predictions and Predictimands for Salvage Therapy in Recurrent Prostate Cancer Using Joint Models"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"45","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-5149-5379","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Lukas","family":"Owens","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Public Health Sciences Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center  Seattle Washington USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-9397-0900","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Dimitris","family":"Rizopoulos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics Erasmus University Medical Center  Rotterdam the Netherlands"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology Erasmus University Medical Center  Rotterdam the Netherlands"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jonathan","family":"Fainberg","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center  New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3553-5710","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sigrid","family":"Carlsson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center  New York New York USA"},{"name":"Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center  New York New York USA"},{"name":"Division of Clinical Epidemiology of Early Cancer Detection German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ)  Heidelberg Germany"},{"name":"Department of Translational Medicine, Division of Urological Cancers Lund University  Lund Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Nicole","family":"Liso","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center  New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Sean","family":"McBride","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Radiation Oncology Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center  New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Vincent","family":"Laudone","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center  New York New York USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ruth","family":"Etzioni","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Division of Public Health Sciences Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center  Seattle Washington USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Jeremy M. G.","family":"Taylor","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Biostatistics University of Michigan  Ann Arbor Michigan USA"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_10_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.eururo.2014.09.019"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2006.08.9607"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1200\/JCO.2016.67.9647"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s10654\u2010020\u201000636\u20101"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/stan.12193"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jclinepi.2016.03.017"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7913"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.4510"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/19\u2010sts720"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/09622802241239003"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1541\u20100420.2012.01823.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_13_1","volume-title":"Causal Inference: What if","author":"Hern\u00e1n M. A.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b12208"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_15_1","volume-title":"JMbayes2: Extended Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time\u2010To\u2010Event Data","author":"Rizopoulos D.","year":"2024"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_16_1","volume-title":"Dynamic Treatment Regimes: Statistical Methods for Precision Medicine","author":"Tsiatis A. A.","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_10_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/978-1-4614-7428-9"}],"container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.70710","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/sim.70710","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/sim.70710","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,9,23]],"date-time":"2026-09-23T07:42:36Z","timestamp":1790149356000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/sim.70710"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"references-count":16,"journal-issue":{"issue":"20-22","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026,9]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/sim.70710"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/sim.70710","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0277-6715","1097-0258"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0277-6715","type":"print"},{"value":"1097-0258","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,25]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-03-06","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-10","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-08-25","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"e70710"}}