{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,2,26]],"date-time":"2026-02-26T15:15:14Z","timestamp":1772118914193,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":34,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"26","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,24]],"date-time":"2021-08-24T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1629763200000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/100000865","name":"Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["OPP1141321"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["OPP1141321"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100000865","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100001921","name":"Public Health Research Programme","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100001921","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["106158\/Z\/14\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["106158\/Z\/14\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/100010269","name":"Wellcome Trust","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["206545\/Z\/17\/Z"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["206545\/Z\/17\/Z"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/100010269","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Statistics in Medicine"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2021,11,20]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title>\n                  <jats:p>Decisions about typhoid fever prevention and control are based on estimates of typhoid incidence and their uncertainty. Lack of specific clinical diagnostic criteria, poorly sensitive diagnostic tests, and scarcity of accurate and complete datasets contribute to difficulties in calculating age\u2010specific population\u2010level typhoid incidence. Using data from the Strategic Typhoid Alliance across Africa and Asia program, we integrated demographic censuses, healthcare utilization surveys, facility\u2010based surveillance, and serological surveillance from Malawi, Nepal, and Bangladesh to account for under\u2010detection of cases. We developed a Bayesian approach that adjusts the count of reported blood\u2010culture\u2010positive cases for blood culture detection, blood culture collection, and healthcare seeking\u2014and how these factors vary by age\u2014while combining information from prior published studies. We validated the model using simulated data. The ratio of observed to adjusted incidence rates was 7.7 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 6.0\u201012.4) in Malawi, 14.4 (95% CrI: 9.3\u201024.9) in Nepal, and 7.0 (95% CrI: 5.6\u20109.2) in Bangladesh. The probability of blood culture collection led to the largest adjustment in Malawi, while the probability of seeking healthcare contributed the most in Nepal and Bangladesh; adjustment factors varied by age. Adjusted incidence rates were within or below the seroincidence rate limits of typhoid infection. Estimates of blood\u2010culture\u2010confirmed typhoid fever without these adjustments results in considerable underestimation of the true incidence of typhoid fever. Our approach allows each phase of the reporting process to be synthesized to estimate the adjusted incidence of typhoid fever while correctly characterizing uncertainty, which can inform decision\u2010making for typhoid prevention and control.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.9159","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2021,8,24]],"date-time":"2021-08-24T16:59:17Z","timestamp":1629824357000},"page":"5853-5870","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":15,"title":["A Bayesian approach for estimating typhoid fever incidence from large\u2010scale facility\u2010based passive surveillance data"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"40","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-6952-0440","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Maile T.","family":"Phillips","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases Yale School of Public Health  New Haven Connecticut 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University  Bangkok Thailand"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Sarah J.","family":"Dunstan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity The University of Melbourne  Melbourne Victoria Australia"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Gordon","family":"Dougan","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Medicine University of Cambridge  Cambridge UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Melita A.","family":"Gordon","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Programme Kamuzu University of Health Sciences  Blantyre Malawi"},{"name":"Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences University of Liverpool  Liverpool UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Deus","family":"Thindwa","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Programme Kamuzu University of Health Sciences  Blantyre Malawi"},{"name":"Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine  London UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Robert S.","family":"Heyderman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Malawi Liverpool Wellcome Programme Kamuzu University of Health Sciences  Blantyre Malawi"},{"name":"NIHR Global Health Research Unit on Mucosal Pathogens, Division of Infection and Immunity University College London  London UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kathryn E.","family":"Holt","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Infectious Diseases, Central Clinical School Monash University  Melbourne Victoria Australia"},{"name":"Department of Infection Biology London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine  London"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Firdausi","family":"Qadri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b)  Dhaka Bangladesh"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Andrew J.","family":"Pollard","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics University of Oxford  Oxford UK"},{"name":"National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre  Oxford UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Virginia E.","family":"Pitzer","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases Yale School of Public Health  New Haven Connecticut USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"name":"the STRATAA Study 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