{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,8,31]],"date-time":"2026-08-31T21:37:42Z","timestamp":1788212262906,"version":"build-2803163510"},"reference-count":15,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"2","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,8]],"date-time":"2018-01-08T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1515369600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000780","name":"European Commission","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["Framework Agreement number 2013\u20100040"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["Framework Agreement number 2013\u20100040"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000780","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["obgyn.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ultrasound in Obstet &amp; Gyne"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,2]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To validate a prediction model for successful vaginal birth after Cesarean delivery (VBAC) based on sonographic assessment of the hysterotomy scar, in a Swedish population.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>Data were collected from a prospective cohort study. We recruited non\u2010pregnant women aged 18\u201335 years who had undergone one previous low\u2010transverse Cesarean delivery at \u2265\u200937 gestational weeks and had had no other uterine surgery. Participants who subsequently became pregnant underwent transvaginal ultrasound examination of the Cesarean hysterotomy scar at 11\u2009+\u20090 to 13\u2009+\u20096 and at 19\u2009+\u20090 to 21\u2009+\u20096 gestational weeks. Thickness of the myometrium at the thinnest part of the scar area was measured. After delivery, information on pregnancy outcome was retrieved from hospital records. Individual probabilities of successful VBAC were calculated using a previously published model. Predicted individual probabilities were divided into deciles. For each decile, observed VBAC rates were calculated. To assess the accuracy of the prediction model, receiver\u2013operating characteristics curves were constructed and the areas under the curves (AUC) were calculated.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>Complete sonographic data were available for 120 women. Eighty (67%) women underwent trial of labor after Cesarean delivery (TOLAC) with VBAC occurring in 70 (88%) cases. The scar was visible in all 80 women at the first\u2010trimester scan and in 54 (68%) women at the second\u2010trimester scan. AUC was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.28\u20130.60) among all women who underwent TOLAC and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.32\u20130.71) among those with the scar visible sonographically at both ultrasound examinations.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The prediction model demonstrated poor accuracy for prediction of successful VBAC in our Swedish population. Copyright \u00a9 2017 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/uog.17439","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,2,24]],"date-time":"2017-02-24T05:02:43Z","timestamp":1487912563000},"page":"189-193","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":23,"title":["Validation of prediction model for successful vaginal birth after Cesarean delivery based on sonographic assessment of hysterotomy scar"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"51","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-8765-3711","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"A.","family":"Baranov","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology Sk\u00e5ne University Hospital Malm\u00f6  Lund University Malm\u00f6, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"K. \u00c5.","family":"Salvesen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Laboratory Medicine, Children's and Women's Health Norwegian University of Science and Technology  Trondheim Norway"},{"name":"Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, St Olavs Hospital Trondheim University Hospital  Trondheim Norway"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"O.","family":"Vikhareva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology Sk\u00e5ne University Hospital Malm\u00f6  Lund University Malm\u00f6, Sweden"}],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,8]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_6_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1365-3016.2007.00786.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/AOG.0b013e3181eeb251"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_4_1","volume-title":"Birth after previous caesarean section","author":"Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG)","year":"2015"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJM199609053351001"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1056\/NEJMoa040405"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3109\/14767058.2014.1002767"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ejogrb.2015.02.031"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/01.AOG.0000259312.36053.02"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1055\/s-0029-1239494"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1471-0528.12539"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pmed.0020252"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/uog.12423"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/uog.10077"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/EDE.0b013e3181c30fb2"},{"key":"e_1_2_6_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/uog.16220"}],"container-title":["Ultrasound in Obstetrics &amp; Gynecology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/api.wiley.com\/onlinelibrary\/tdm\/v1\/articles\/10.1002%2Fuog.17439","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/uog.17439","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/uog.17439","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/obgyn.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/uog.17439","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2023,9,14]],"date-time":"2023-09-14T20:24:12Z","timestamp":1694723052000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/obgyn.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/uog.17439"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,8]]},"references-count":15,"journal-issue":{"issue":"2","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2018,2]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/uog.17439"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/uog.17439","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0960-7692","1469-0705"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0960-7692","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-0705","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2018,1,8]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2016-11-28","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2017-02-17","order":1,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2018-01-08","order":2,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}