{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,5,14]],"date-time":"2026-05-14T23:01:42Z","timestamp":1778799702458,"version":"3.51.4"},"reference-count":20,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"5","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,15]],"date-time":"2024-10-15T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1728950400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100022291","name":"Tommy's National Centre for Miscarriage Research","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","award":["No specific award number (via Centre Funding)"],"award-info":[{"award-number":["No specific award number (via Centre Funding)"]}],"id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100022291","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["obgyn.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Ultrasound in Obstet &amp;amp; Gyne"],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>ABSTRACT<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objective<\/jats:title><jats:p>To establish proof\u2010of\u2010concept for the dynamic prediction of adverse pregnancy  outcome in women with a history of stillbirth or perinatal death, repeatedly throughout the pregnancy.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>A retrospective cohort study of women in a subsequent pregnancy following previous perinatal loss, who received antenatal care at  a tertiary hospital between January 2014 and December 2017, was used as the basis for exploratory prognostic model development. Models were developed to repeatedly predict a composite adverse outcome (stillbirth or neonatal death, 5\u2010min Apgar score &lt;\u20097, umbilical artery pH \u2264\u20097.05, admission to the neonatal intensive care unit for longer than 24\u2009h, preterm birth (&lt;\u200937 completed weeks) or birth weight &lt;\u200910<jats:sup>th<\/jats:sup> centile) using the findings of sequential ultrasound scans for fetal biometry and umbilical and uterine artery Doppler.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>In total, 506 participants were eligible, of whom 504 were included in the analysis. An adverse pregnancy outcome was experienced by 110 (22%) participants. The ability to predict the composite outcome using repeated head circumference and estimated  fetal weight measurements improved as the pregnancy progressed (e.g. area under the receiver\u2010operating\u2010characteristics curve improved from 0.59 at 24\u2009weeks' gestation to 0.74 at 36\u2009weeks' gestation), supporting proof\u2010of\u2010concept. Predictors to include in dynamic prediction models were identified, including ultrasound measurements of fetal biometry, umbilical and uterine artery Doppler and placental size and shape.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusion<\/jats:title><jats:p>The present study supports proof\u2010of\u2010concept for dynamic prediction of adverse outcome in pregnancy following prior stillbirth or perinatal death, which could be used to identify risks earlier in pregnancy, while highlighting methodological challenges and requirements for subsequent large\u2010scale model development studies. \u00a9 2024 The Author(s). <jats:italic>Ultrasound in Obstetrics &amp; Gynecology<\/jats:italic> published by John Wiley &amp; Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/uog.29104","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,16]],"date-time":"2024-10-16T04:45:02Z","timestamp":1729053902000},"page":"613-619","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Dynamic prediction of  pregnancy outcome  after previous stillbirth or perinatal death: pilot study to establish proof\u2010of\u2010concept and explore method feasibility"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"64","author":[{"given":"A. E. P.","family":"Heazell","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"St Mary's Hospital, Manchester Foundation Trust Manchester Academic Health Science Centre  Manchester UK"},{"name":"Maternal and Fetal Health Research Centre, School of Medical Sciences University of Manchester, St Mary's Hospital  Manchester UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"N.","family":"Graham","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"St Mary's Hospital, Manchester Foundation Trust Manchester Academic Health Science Centre  Manchester UK"},{"name":"Maternal and Fetal Health Research Centre, School of Medical Sciences University of Manchester, St Mary's Hospital  Manchester UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"M. J.","family":"Parkes","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Biostatistics, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Division of Population Health Health Services Research and Primary Care  Manchester UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-3513-4677","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"J.","family":"Wilkinson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Biostatistics, Manchester Academic Health Science Centre, Division of Population Health Health Services Research and Primary Care  Manchester UK"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,15]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","volume-title":"A Neglected Tragedy: The Global Burden of Stillbirths \u2010 Report of the UN Inter\u2010agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation","author":"(UNICEF)","year":"2020"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmj.h3080"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/aogs.14705"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1471-0528.2007.01562.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0155761"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/aogs.14076"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1471-0528.14424"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s41512-020-00078-z"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1201\/b11311"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/tog.12708"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","unstructured":"NHS England.NHS fetal anomaly screening programme (FASP).2023https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/collections\/nhs\u2010fetal\u2010anomaly\u2010screening\u2010programme\u2010fasp"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/jcu.1870110605"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3109\/14767058.2014.963047"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2020-041983"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/biomet\/78.3.691"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/sim.7992"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jogc.2018.07.002"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/uog.15884"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1136\/bmjopen-2018-028735"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.ajog.2017.11.575"}],"container-title":["Ultrasound in Obstetrics &amp; Gynecology"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/obgyn.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/uog.29104","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,2,19]],"date-time":"2025-02-19T16:31:35Z","timestamp":1739982695000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/obgyn.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/uog.29104"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,15]]},"references-count":20,"journal-issue":{"issue":"5","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,11]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/uog.29104"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/uog.29104","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0960-7692","1469-0705"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0960-7692","type":"print"},{"value":"1469-0705","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,10,15]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2024-02-29","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-08-05","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2024-10-15","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}]}}