{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,7]],"date-time":"2026-01-07T07:49:14Z","timestamp":1767772154573,"version":"3.40.5"},"reference-count":39,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"7","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,9]],"date-time":"2024-05-09T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1715212800000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/termsAndConditions#vor"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["World j. surg."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2024,7]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>Gallstone\u2010related conditions affect a significant portion of the population, with varying prevalence among different ethnic groups. Complications such as pancreatitis and cholangitis are associated with the presence of common bile duct (CBD) stones. Existing guidelines for diagnosing choledocholithiasis lack precision, leading to excessive use of invasive procedures like endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>A prospective study was conducted at Hospital Central \u201cDr. Ignacio Morones Prieto,\u201d involving 374 patients in the development cohort and 154 patients in the validation cohort. Patients meeting inclusion criteria underwent biochemical testing and ultrasonography. A predictive scoring system was developed using logistic regression and validated in an independent cohort. Clinical and laboratory variables were collected, and model performance was assessed using receiver\u2010operator characteristic (ROC) curves.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The predictive model incorporated variables such as age, pancreatitis, cholangitis, bilirubin levels, and CBD stone presence on ultrasound. The model demonstrated an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 93.81% in the validation dataset. By adjusting the threshold defining high\u2010risk probability to 40%, the model improved specificity and sensitivity compared to existing guidelines. Notably, the model reclassified patients, leading to a more accurate risk assessment.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>The developed algorithm accurately predicts choledocholithiasis non\u2010invasively in patients with symptomatic gallstones. This tool has the potential to reduce reliance on costly or invasive procedures like magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography and ERCP, offering a more efficient and cost\u2010effective approach to patient management. The user\u2010friendly calculator developed in this study could streamline diagnostic procedures, particularly in resource\u2010limited healthcare settings, ultimately improving patient care.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/wjs.12206","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,5,10]],"date-time":"2024-05-10T03:33:12Z","timestamp":1715311992000},"page":"1730-1738","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":3,"title":["Development and validation of a predictive model for choledocholithiasis"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"48","author":[{"given":"Ra\u00fal","family":"Huerta\u2010Reyna","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery Hospital Central Dr. Ignacio Morones Prieto  San Luis Potos\u00ed M\u00e9xico"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Lorenzo","family":"Guevara\u2010Torres","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery Hospital Central Dr. Ignacio Morones Prieto  San Luis Potos\u00ed 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