{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,11]],"date-time":"2025-10-11T00:11:14Z","timestamp":1760141474644,"version":"build-2065373602"},"reference-count":43,"publisher":"Wiley","issue":"4","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,19]],"date-time":"2024-12-19T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1734566400000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"}],"content-domain":{"domain":[],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":["World j. surg."],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]},"abstract":"<jats:title>Abstract<\/jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background<\/jats:title><jats:p>American Thyroid Association guidelines support active surveillance (AS) for low\u2010risk papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). We developed a calculator to aid patient selection.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods<\/jats:title><jats:p>From 2004 to 2020, 148,904 PTC patients were selected from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. Univariable and multivariable analysis evaluated patient and treatment characteristics. Patients were randomly allocated into training (80%) or validation sets (20%). Coefficients generated a mathematical model to predict 5\u2010 and 10\u2010year disease\u2010specific survival (DSS).<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results<\/jats:title><jats:p>The mean DSS was 15.5\u00a0years with a 5\u2010 and 10\u2010year DSS of 99.3% and 98.6%, respectively. Age, sex, race, median household income (MHI), tumor size, and nodal status were significant on multivariable analysis (<jats:italic>p<\/jats:italic>\u00a0\u2264\u00a00.05) and included variables in our calculator. 2404 patients underwent non\u2010operative management (NOM) and were more likely older, male, higher MHI, larger tumor size, and less nodal positivity. Area under the curve (AUC) for 5\u2010 and 10\u2010year DSS were 0.83 and 0.81, respectively, for the training set and 0.81 and 0.79, respectively,\u00a0for the validation set.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Example<\/jats:title><jats:p>65\u2010year\u2010old White female with a 0.8\u00a0cm PTC, cN0 with a MHI \u2265 $75,000, had a 10\u2010year predicted DSS was 95.6% with NOM and 99.3% with surgery. Alternatively, changing the patient's race to Hispanic, the 10\u2010year predicted DSS was 94.1% with NOM and 99.0% with surgery.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions<\/jats:title><jats:p>As awareness of AS for PTC expands, it is important to consider objective data to guide informed decision making. This validated calculator is a useful tool to predict DSS for patients considering AS for PTC.<\/jats:p><\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/wjs.12434","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,19]],"date-time":"2024-12-19T22:58:59Z","timestamp":1734649139000},"page":"1011-1021","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":2,"title":["Predicting disease\u2010specific survival in patients undergoing active surveillance for papillary thyroid carcinoma"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"49","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0005-5586-3406","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Stanton","family":"Nielsen","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery NorthShore University HealthSystem  Evanston IL USA"},{"name":"The University of Chicago Medical Center Chicago  Chicago IL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Kristine","family":"Kuchta","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery NorthShore University HealthSystem  Evanston IL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Grace","family":"Huang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery NorthShore University HealthSystem  Evanston IL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Samuel","family":"Zuber","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery NorthShore University HealthSystem  Evanston IL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Simon","family":"Holoubek","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery University of Wisconsin\u2010Madison  Madison WI USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Amanda","family":"Karcioglu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery NorthShore University HealthSystem  Evanston IL USA"},{"name":"The University of Chicago Medical Center Chicago  Chicago IL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Amna","family":"Khokar","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery John H. Stroger Jr, Hospital of Cook County  Chicago IL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Richard","family":"Prinz","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery NorthShore University HealthSystem  Evanston IL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]},{"given":"Tricia","family":"Moo\u2010Young","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Surgery NorthShore University HealthSystem  Evanston IL USA"},{"name":"The University of Chicago Medical Center Chicago  Chicago IL USA"}],"role":[{"role":"author","vocabulary":"crossref"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,19]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_11_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jama.2017.2719"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.4158\/EP14466.DSCR"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fendo.2020.571421"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaoto.2015.0647"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/thy.2006.16.47"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/10732748221135447"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.surg.2013.07.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/105072503321669875"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00268\u2010009\u20100303\u20100"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1210\/jc.2016\u20104026"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00268\u2010009\u20100359\u2010x"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.21037\/gs\u20102019\u2010catp\u201003"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1002\/lio2.356"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaoncol.2022.3875"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/thy.2019.0060"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/thy.2015.0020"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/thy.2023.0076"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaoto.2017.1442"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1210\/clinem\/dgz113"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/thy.2018.0263"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamaoto.2018.1663"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_23_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1210\/jc.2010\u20100959"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_24_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/ajcp\/90.1.72"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_25_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1159\/000478927"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fonc.2023.1185650"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1089\/thy.2018.0609"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_28_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1186\/s12957\u2010018\u20101340\u20107"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_29_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jss.2022.11.033"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjsurg.2013.07.015"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598\u2010020\u201060199\u20109"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2018.3146"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/jamanetworkopen.2023.0179"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_34_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/s00432\u2010023\u201005344\u20103"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_35_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.urolonc.2017.05.001"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_36_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1097\/SLA.0000000000004417"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1177\/0272989X10364247"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jss.2021.10.016"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jamcollsurg.2014.01.055"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amjsurg.2018.01.006"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_41_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.3389\/fendo.2023.1185327"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_42_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1093\/jncimonographs\/lgz029"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_43_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1001\/archoto.2010.55"},{"key":"e_1_2_11_44_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1046\/j.1464\u2010410x.2002.2822.x"}],"container-title":["World Journal of Surgery"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/wjs.12434","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2025,10,10]],"date-time":"2025-10-10T01:13:43Z","timestamp":1760058823000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/wjs.12434"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,19]]},"references-count":43,"journal-issue":{"issue":"4","published-print":{"date-parts":[[2025,4]]}},"alternative-id":["10.1002\/wjs.12434"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/wjs.12434","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["0364-2313","1432-2323"],"issn-type":[{"type":"print","value":"0364-2313"},{"type":"electronic","value":"1432-2323"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2024,12,19]]}}}