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We investigate the effect of Pacific climate variability, together with temporally\u2010correlated noise, on linear trend error estimates and determine new time\u2010of\u2010emergence (ToE) estimates across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Sea\u2010level trend studies often advocate the use of auto\u2010regressive (AR) noise models to adequately assess formal uncertainties, yet sea level often exhibits colored but non\u2010AR(1) noise. Standard error estimates are over\u2010 or under\u2010estimated by an AR(1) model for much of the Indo\u2010Pacific sea level. Allowing for PDO and ENSO variability in the trend estimate only reduces standard errors across the tropics and we find noise characteristics are largely unaffected. Of importance for trend and acceleration detection studies, formal error estimates remain on average up to 1.6 times those from an AR(1) model for long\u2010duration tide gauge data. There is an even chance that the observed trend from the satellite altimetry era exceeds the noise in patches of the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans and the south\u2010west and north\u2010east Pacific gyres. By including climate indices in the trend analysis, the time it takes for the observed linear sea\u2010level trend to emerge from the noise reduces by up to 2 decades.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/2017jc013655","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,15]],"date-time":"2018-03-15T10:59:02Z","timestamp":1521111542000},"page":"1978-1993","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":50,"title":["Sea\u2010Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally\u2010Correlated Noise"],"prefix":"10.1029","volume":"123","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7685-5043","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Sam","family":"Royston","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Discipline of Geography and Spatial Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7464-4592","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Christopher S.","family":"Watson","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Discipline of Geography and Spatial Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1909-1630","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Beno\u00eet","family":"Legr\u00e9sy","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Hobart TAS Australia"},{"name":"Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre Hobart TAS Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-5611-9498","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Matt A.","family":"King","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Discipline of Geography and Spatial Sciences University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7037-8194","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"John A.","family":"Church","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Climate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney NSW Australia"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1946-8637","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Machiel S.","family":"Bos","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Space and Earth Geodetic Analysis Lab University of Beira Interior Covilh\u00e3 Portugal"}]}],"member":"13","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2018,3,13]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_7_2_1","volume-title":"Proceedings of the second international symposium on information theory","author":"Akaike H.","year":"1973"},{"key":"e_1_2_7_3_1","unstructured":"Bos M. &Fernandes R.(2016).Hector user manual version 1.6(Tech. 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