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Ignoring these sources of randomness may cause bias in the estimates of the model parameters. One possible way for overcoming that limitation is to consider a longitudinal model for the time\u2010varying covariates jointly with a survival model for the time to the event of interest, thereby taking advantage of the complementary information flowing between these two\u2010model outcomes. We employ here a Bayesian hierarchical approach to jointly model spatial\u2010clustered survival data with a fraction of long\u2010term survivors along with the repeated measurements of CD4<jats:sup>+<\/jats:sup>T lymphocyte counts for a random sample of 500 HIV\/AIDS individuals collected in all the 27 states of Brazil during the period 2002\u20132006. The proposed Bayesian joint model comprises two parts: on the one hand, a flexible model using Penalized Splines to better capture the nonlinear behavior of the different CD4 profiles over time; on the other hand, a spatial cure model to cope with the set of long\u2010term survivor individuals. Our findings show that joint models considering this set of patients were the ones with the best performance comparatively to the more traditional survival approach. Moreover, the use of spatial frailties allowed us to map the heterogeneity in the disease risk among the Brazilian states.<\/jats:p>","DOI":"10.1002\/bimj.201600159","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,2]],"date-time":"2017-05-02T16:54:36Z","timestamp":1493744076000},"page":"1166-1183","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":16,"title":["Joint analysis of longitudinal and survival AIDS data with a spatial fraction of long\u2010term survivors: A Bayesian approach"],"prefix":"10.1002","volume":"59","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-1862-7066","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Rui","family":"Martins","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Investiga\u00e7\u00e3o Interdisciplinar Egas Moniz (CiiEM) Escola Superior de Sa\u00fade Egas Moniz, Quinta da Granja, Monte de Caparica 2829\u2010511 Caparica Portugal"}]},{"given":"Giovani L.","family":"Silva","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Estat\u00edstica e Aplica\u00e7\u00f5es da Universidade de Lisboa (CEAUL) Bloco C6 \u2010 Piso 4, Campo Grande 1749-016 Lisboa Portugal"},{"name":"Departamento de Matem\u00e1tica\u2014Instituto Superior T\u00e9cnico Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1 1049\u2010001 Lisboa Portugal"}]},{"given":"Valeska","family":"Andreozzi","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centro de Estat\u00edstica e Aplica\u00e7\u00f5es da Universidade de Lisboa (CEAUL) Bloco C6 \u2010 Piso 4, Campo Grande 1749-016 Lisboa Portugal"},{"name":"Faculdade de Ci\u00eancias M\u00e9dicas da Universidade Nova de Lisboa Campo M\u00e1rtires da P\u00e1tria, 130 1169\u2010056 Lisboa Portugal"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2017,5,2]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","article-title":"Combined dynamic predictions using joint models of two longitudinal outcomes and competing risk data","author":"Andrinopoulou E.\u2010R.","year":"2015","journal-title":"Statistical Methods in Medical Research"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","volume-title":"Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data","author":"Banerjee S.","year":"2004"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1952.10501187"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1007\/BF00116466"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.csda.2004.10.011"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1541-0420.00079"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/j.0006-341X.2005.030929.x"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1080\/01621459.1999.10474196"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jmva.2004.04.005"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","volume-title":"Bayesian Ideas and Data Analysis\u2014An Introduction for Scientists and Statisticians","author":"Christensen R.","year":"2011"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1198\/016214507000000112"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1191\/0962280206sm453oa"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1016\/j.amepre.2007.03.015"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1214\/ss\/1038425655"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","unstructured":"Eilers P.andMarx B.(2004).Splines knots and penalties. 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