{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,23]],"date-time":"2026-03-23T05:02:50Z","timestamp":1774242170024,"version":"3.50.1"},"reference-count":47,"publisher":"Wiley","license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,22]],"date-time":"2026-03-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1774137600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,22]],"date-time":"2026-03-22T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1774137600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"http:\/\/doi.wiley.com\/10.1002\/tdm_license_1.1"}],"funder":[{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100000737","name":"University of Exeter","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100000737","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]},{"DOI":"10.13039\/501100004543","name":"China Scholarship Council","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","id":[{"id":"10.13039\/501100004543","id-type":"DOI","asserted-by":"publisher"}]}],"content-domain":{"domain":["scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com"],"crossmark-restriction":true},"short-container-title":["Pest Management Science"],"abstract":"Abstract<\/jats:title>\n \n BACKGROUND<\/jats:title>\n \n The migratory invasive species fall armyworm (\n Spodoptera frugiperda<\/jats:italic>\n , FAW) has established year\u2010round populations in several West African countries following its initial invasion of Africa in early 2016. However, its seasonal migratory dynamics within West Africa remain poorly understood. If FAW populations in West Africa were able to successfully cross the Sahara Desert and serve as a major source population in North Africa, this could increase the risk of further invasion into southern Europe. In this study, we used atmospheric data to perform trajectory simulations, predicting the seasonal migratory pathways of short\u2010distance migratory FAW individuals within West African breeding habitats and assessing the monthly probabilities of long\u2010distance migrants departing from West Africa successfully crossing the Sahara Desert.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n RESULTS<\/jats:title>\n The results indicate that from May to September, the vast majority of short\u2010distance migrants (>70%) remained within West African breeding habitats, whereas in other months, a larger proportion of individuals were blown into the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, short\u2010distance migrants exhibited clear seasonal movement patterns within West Africa: shifting southwestward from January to May, turning northeastward in June and July, and returning southwestward from August to December. Long\u2010distance migrants had an extremely low success rate (\u22640.3%) of crossing the Sahara Desert, which occurred only between February and April each year.<\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>\n \n CONCLUSION<\/jats:title>\n \n This study revealed the seasonal migration patterns of FAW within West Africa, providing important insights for predicting regional outbreak risks and optimizing management strategies in the region. \u00a9 2026 The Author(s).\n Pest Management Science<\/jats:italic>\n published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.\n <\/jats:p>\n <\/jats:sec>","DOI":"10.1002\/ps.70732","type":"journal-article","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,23]],"date-time":"2026-03-23T04:30:53Z","timestamp":1774240253000},"update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Potential patterns of fall armyworm seasonal migration in West Africa modeled with atmospheric trajectory analyses"],"prefix":"10.1002","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0009-0009-6749-4272","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Fan\u2010Qi","family":"Gao","sequence":"first","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology Nanjing Agricultural University Nanjing China"},{"name":"Centre for Ecology and Conservation University of Exeter Penryn United\u00a0Kingdom"}]},{"given":"Xue\u2010Yan","family":"Zhang","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecology and Conservation University of Exeter Penryn United\u00a0Kingdom"}]},{"given":"Rosina","family":"Kyerematen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Animal Biology and Conservation Science University of Ghana Accra Ghana"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-1000-5687","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Gao","family":"Hu","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Centre for Ecology and Conservation University of Exeter Penryn United\u00a0Kingdom"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4108-5904","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Regan","family":"Early","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology Nanjing Agricultural University Nanjing China"}]},{"given":"Jason W.","family":"Chapman","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[{"name":"Department of Entomology Nanjing Agricultural University Nanjing China"},{"name":"Centre for Ecology and Conservation University of Exeter Penryn United\u00a0Kingdom"}]}],"member":"311","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,22]]},"reference":[{"key":"e_1_2_8_2_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"287","DOI":"10.1111\/ele.12407","article-title":"Long\u2010range seasonal migration in insects: mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and ecological consequences","volume":"18","author":"Chapman JW","year":"2015","journal-title":"Ecol Lett"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_3_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"335","DOI":"10.1002\/fee.2217","article-title":"Seasonal insect migrations: massive, influential, and overlooked","volume":"18","author":"Satterfield DA","year":"2020","journal-title":"Front Ecol Environ"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_4_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"2167","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cub.2019.05.036","article-title":"Mass seasonal migrations of hoverflies provide extensive pollination and crop protection services","volume":"29","author":"Wotton KR","year":"2019","journal-title":"Curr Biol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_5_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"R908","DOI":"10.1016\/j.cub.2008.08.014","article-title":"A seasonal switch in compass orientation in a high\u2010flying migrant moth","volume":"18","author":"Chapman JW","year":"2008","journal-title":"Curr Biol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_6_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2317646121","article-title":"Massive seasonal high\u2010altitude migrations of nocturnal insects above the agricultural plains of East China","volume":"121","author":"Huang J","year":"2024","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_7_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.isci.2024.110040","article-title":"Aseasonal, undirected migration in insects: \u2018Invisible\u2019 but common","volume":"27","author":"Sappington TW","year":"2024","journal-title":"iScience"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_8_1","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","DOI":"10.1111\/1744-7917.13502"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_9_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1016\/j.isci.2023.108281","article-title":"Adaptive migratory orientation of an invasive pest on a new continent","volume":"26","author":"Chen H","year":"2023","journal-title":"Iscience"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_10_1","first-page":"546","article-title":"Review of fall armyworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) genetic complexity and migration","volume":"91","author":"Nagoshi RN","year":"2008","journal-title":"Fla Entomol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_11_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/finsc.2023.1104793","article-title":"Revisiting fall armyworm population movement in the United States and Canada","volume":"3","author":"Tessnow AE","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front Insect Sci"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_12_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"255","DOI":"10.1007\/s00484-015-1022-x","article-title":"Modeling seasonal migration of fall armyworm moths","volume":"60","author":"Westbrook J","year":"2016","journal-title":"Int J Biometeorol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_13_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"1300","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jia.2023.09.016","article-title":"Invasion of fall armyworm led to the succession of maize pests in Southwest China","volume":"23","author":"Fan Z","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Integr Agric"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_14_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/insects13100897","article-title":"Prediction of growth characteristics and migration period of Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) according to temperature","volume":"13","author":"Lee S","year":"2022","journal-title":"Insects"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_15_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"632","DOI":"10.1111\/jen.13254","article-title":"Analysis of the occurrence of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, in the winter season on the southwestern islands of Japan using the insect's strontium radiogenic isotope ratio (87Sr\/86Sr)","volume":"148","author":"Hidaka N","year":"2024","journal-title":"J Appl Entomol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_16_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3390\/insects14100804","article-title":"Prediction of the overseas migration of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, to Japan","volume":"14","author":"Otuka A","year":"2023","journal-title":"Insects"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_17_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"772","DOI":"10.1016\/S2095-3119(20)63292-0","article-title":"Population occurrence of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), in the winter season of China","volume":"20","author":"Yang X\u2010M","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Integr Agric"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_18_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"127","DOI":"10.3390\/insects14020127","article-title":"Migration dynamics of fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith) in the Yangtze River Delta","volume":"14","author":"Zhang X\u2010Y","year":"2023","journal-title":"Insects"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_19_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"707","DOI":"10.1016\/S2095-3119(20)63166-5","article-title":"Laboratory\u2010based flight performance of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda","volume":"20","author":"Ge S\u2010S","year":"2021","journal-title":"J Integr Agric"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_20_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0165632","article-title":"First report of outbreaks of the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) (Lepidoptera, Noctuidae), a new alien invasive pest in West and Central Africa","volume":"11","author":"Goergen G","year":"2016","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_21_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-04238-y","article-title":"Molecular methods to detect Spodoptera frugiperda in Ghana, and implications for monitoring the spread of invasive species in developing countries","volume":"7","author":"Cock MJ","year":"2017","journal-title":"Sci Rep"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_22_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0249042","article-title":"Bioecology of fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith), its management and potential patterns of seasonal spread in Africa","volume":"16","author":"Niassy S","year":"2021","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_23_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"Towards estimating the economic cost of invasive alien species to African crop and livestock production","volume":"2","author":"Eschen R","year":"2021","journal-title":"CABI Agric Biosci"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_24_1","article-title":"Harnessing data science to improve integrated management of invasive pest species across Africa: an application to fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) (JE Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)","volume":"35","author":"Guimapi RA","year":"2022","journal-title":"Glob Ecol Conserv"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_25_1","article-title":"Annual dynamics of fall armyworm populations in West Africa and biology in different host plants","volume":"16","author":"Ahissou BR","year":"2022","journal-title":"Sci Afr"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_26_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"454","DOI":"10.1002\/ps.5530","article-title":"Prediction of migratory routes of the invasive fall armyworm in eastern China using a trajectory analytical approach","volume":"76","author":"Li X","year":"2020","journal-title":"Pest Manag Sci"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_27_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"4415","DOI":"10.3390\/rs14174415","article-title":"Mapping the spatio\u2010temporal distribution of fall armyworm in China by coupling multi\u2010factors","volume":"14","author":"Huang Y","year":"2022","journal-title":"Remote Sens"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_28_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"The biology of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda. JE Smith) in Sudan","volume":"4","author":"Kona NEM","year":"2021","journal-title":"Aust J Agr Res"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_29_1","first-page":"189","article-title":"Fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (JE Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) biological aspects as a new alien invasive pest in Egypt","volume":"13","author":"Gamil WE","year":"2020","journal-title":"Egypt Acad J Biol Sci A"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_30_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"187","DOI":"10.1127\/entomologia\/2022\/1659","article-title":"Invasiveness, biology, ecology, and management of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda","volume":"43","author":"Kenis M","year":"2022","journal-title":"Entomol Gen"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_31_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1073\/pnas.2102762118","article-title":"Environmental drivers of annual population fluctuations in a trans\u2010Saharan insect migrant","volume":"118","author":"Hu G","year":"2021","journal-title":"Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_32_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"pgae586","DOI":"10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgae586","article-title":"Isotope geolocation and population genomics in Vanessa cardui: Short\u2010 and long\u2010distance migrants are genetically undifferentiated","volume":"4","author":"Reich MS","year":"2025","journal-title":"PNAS Nexus"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_33_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"505","DOI":"10.1111\/1744-7917.12940","article-title":"Overseas immigration of fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), invading Korea and Japan in 2019","volume":"29","author":"Wu MF","year":"2022","journal-title":"Insect Sci"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_34_1","article-title":"Introducing natural earth data\u2010naturalearthdata.com","volume":"5","author":"Kelso NV","year":"2010","journal-title":"Geogr Tech"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_35_1","volume-title":"Community\u2010Based Fall Armyworm (Spodoptera Frugiperda) Monitoring, Early Warning and Management, Training of Trainers Manual","author":"FAO and CABI","year":"2019"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_36_1","first-page":"1","article-title":"A description of the advanced research WRF version 3","volume":"475","author":"Skamarock WC","year":"2008","journal-title":"NCAR Tech Note"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_37_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.1371\/journal.pone.0057277","article-title":"The influence of typhoon Khanun on the return migration of Nilaparvata lugens (St\u00e5l) in eastern China","volume":"8","author":"Hu G","year":"2013","journal-title":"PLoS One"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_38_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"337","DOI":"10.1146\/annurev-ento-120709-144820","article-title":"Recent insights from radar studies of insect flight","volume":"56","author":"Chapman JW","year":"2011","journal-title":"Annu Rev Entomol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_39_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"25","DOI":"10.3897\/neobiota.40.28165","article-title":"Forecasting the global extent of invasion of the cereal pest Spodoptera frugiperda, the fall armyworm","volume":"40","author":"Early R","year":"2018","journal-title":"NeoBiota"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_40_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"705","DOI":"10.1093\/ee\/11.3.705","article-title":"Assessment of early\u2010season phenology of the fall armyworm (lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Mississippi","volume":"11","author":"Hogg DB","year":"1982","journal-title":"Environ Entomol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_41_1","volume-title":"Package \u2018terra\u2019","author":"Hijmans RJ","year":"2022"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_42_1","article-title":"ERA5 monthly averaged data on pressure levels from 1940 to present","author":"Hersbach H","year":"2023","journal-title":"Copernicus Clim Change Serv (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS)"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_43_1","article-title":"Fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) management using pheromone\u2010based mass trapping data on summer maize at the PHI platform in Qob Elisa, Lebanon","author":"Kumari S","year":"2024","journal-title":"cgiar"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_44_1","first-page":"95","article-title":"Insecticide resistance management for fall armyworm in maize fields of Israel","volume":"7","author":"Horowitz AR","year":"2022","journal-title":"Agrofor Syst"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_45_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","DOI":"10.3389\/fpls.2023.1141470","article-title":"Migration risk of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) from North Africa to Southern Europe","volume":"14","author":"Wang J","year":"2023","journal-title":"Front Plant Sci"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_46_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"119","DOI":"10.1093\/icb\/icn011","article-title":"Optimal strategies for insects migrating in the flight boundary layer: mechanisms and consequences","volume":"48","author":"Srygley RB","year":"2008","journal-title":"Integr Comp Biol"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_47_1","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","first-page":"95","DOI":"10.1111\/j.1095-8312.1988.tb00446.x","article-title":"Hostplants and classification: a review of nymphalid butterflies","volume":"33","author":"Ackery P","year":"1988","journal-title":"Biol J Linn Soc"},{"key":"e_1_2_8_48_1","first-page":"103","article-title":"A swarm of millions of Vanessa cardui (Linnaeus, 1758) in winter\u2010spring 2015\u20132016 in the South\u2010East Mediterranean\u2013the missing link","volume":"48","author":"Benyamini D","year":"2017","journal-title":"Atalanta"}],"container-title":["Pest Management Science"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ps.70732","content-type":"application\/pdf","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full-xml\/10.1002\/ps.70732","content-type":"application\/xml","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"text-mining"},{"URL":"https:\/\/scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdf\/10.1002\/ps.70732","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,23]],"date-time":"2026-03-23T04:31:04Z","timestamp":1774240264000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/ps.70732"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,22]]},"references-count":47,"alternative-id":["10.1002\/ps.70732"],"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ps.70732","archive":["Portico"],"relation":{},"ISSN":["1526-498X","1526-4998"],"issn-type":[{"value":"1526-498X","type":"print"},{"value":"1526-4998","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026,3,22]]},"assertion":[{"value":"2025-09-07","order":0,"name":"received","label":"Received","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-02-25","order":2,"name":"accepted","label":"Accepted","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}},{"value":"2026-03-22","order":3,"name":"published","label":"Published","group":{"name":"publication_history","label":"Publication History"}}],"article-number":"ps.70732"}}