{"status":"ok","message-type":"work","message-version":"1.0.0","message":{"indexed":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,27]],"date-time":"2026-06-27T03:47:19Z","timestamp":1782532039054,"version":"3.54.5"},"publisher-location":"Cham","reference-count":15,"publisher":"Springer Nature Switzerland","isbn-type":[{"value":"9783032299086","type":"print"},{"value":"9783032299093","type":"electronic"}],"license":[{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"tdm","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"},{"start":{"date-parts":[[2026,1,1]],"date-time":"2026-01-01T00:00:00Z","timestamp":1767225600000},"content-version":"vor","delay-in-days":0,"URL":"https:\/\/www.springernature.com\/gp\/researchers\/text-and-data-mining"}],"content-domain":{"domain":["link.springer.com"],"crossmark-restriction":false},"short-container-title":[],"published-print":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"DOI":"10.1007\/978-3-032-29909-3_7","type":"book-chapter","created":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,27]],"date-time":"2026-06-27T03:28:06Z","timestamp":1782530886000},"page":"87-94","update-policy":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/springer_crossmark_policy","source":"Crossref","is-referenced-by-count":0,"title":["Methodological Evolution and\u00a0Knowledge Management in\u00a0a\u00a0Displacement Modelling Project: From Research Prototype to\u00a0UNHCR Policy Tool"],"prefix":"10.1007","author":[{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7944-0292","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Laura Marshall","family":"Harbach","sequence":"first","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0003-4474-0943","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Diana","family":"Suleimenova","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-7526-9085","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yani","family":"Xue","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-8867-3207","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Yehor","family":"Yudin","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"ORCID":"https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0001-7463-3765","authenticated-orcid":false,"given":"Derek","family":"Groen","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Giorgia","family":"Tornieri","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Ivan Cardona","family":"Landinez","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Susanne","family":"Klink","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]},{"given":"Konstantin","family":"Fastovets","sequence":"additional","affiliation":[],"role":[{"vocabulary":"crossref","role":"author"}]}],"member":"297","published-online":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,28]]},"reference":[{"key":"7_CR1","unstructured":"UNHCR: Global report 2022. Annual report, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva, Switzerland (2023). https:\/\/www.unhcr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/2023-07\/2305336E_UNHCR-AR-2022_web_V3.pdf"},{"key":"7_CR2","unstructured":"UNHCR: Ukraine refugee situation: Operational data portal (2024). https:\/\/data.unhcr.org\/en\/situations\/ukraine. Accessed 22 May 2024"},{"issue":"12","key":"7_CR3","first-page":"924","volume":"3","author":"SH Rahmati","year":"2017","unstructured":"Rahmati, S.H., Tularam, G.A.: A critical review of human migration models. Clim. Change 3(12), 924\u2013952 (2017)","journal-title":"Clim. Change"},{"issue":"4","key":"7_CR4","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"1108","DOI":"10.1017\/S0007123422000667","volume":"53","author":"A Alrababah","year":"2023","unstructured":"Alrababah, A., Masterson, D., Casalis, M., Hangartner, D., Weinstein, J.: The dynamics of refugee return: Syrian refugees and their migration intentions. Br. J. Polit. Sci. 53(4), 1108\u20131131 (2023). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/S0007123422000667","journal-title":"Br. J. Polit. Sci."},{"key":"7_CR5","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Suleimenova, D., Bell, D.K., Groen, D.: A generalized simulation development approach for predicting refugee destinations. Sci. Rep. 7(1), 13377 (2017). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41598-017-13828-9. https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41598-017-13828-9","DOI":"10.1038\/s41598-017-13828-9"},{"key":"7_CR6","doi-asserted-by":"crossref","unstructured":"Mehrab, Z., et\u00a0al.: An agent-based framework to study forced migration: a case study of Ukraine. PNAS Nexus 3(3) (2024)","DOI":"10.1093\/pnasnexus\/pgae080"},{"key":"7_CR7","unstructured":"United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: Policy brief i forecasting refugee return to Ukraine amid ongoing war and uncertainty. Reports and policy papers, UNHCR, Geneva, Switzerland (2025). https:\/\/data.unhcr.org\/en\/documents\/details\/117421"},{"key":"7_CR8","unstructured":"United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: Policy brief no. 2: Forecasting refugee return to Ukraine amid ongoing war and uncertainty. Reports and policy papers, UNHCR, Geneva, Switzerland (2026). https:\/\/data.unhcr.org\/en\/documents\/details\/120890"},{"key":"7_CR9","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"OECD: Ukraine\u2019s strategic response to the displacement crisis: return, reintegrate, reconnect (2026). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1787\/9b773da4-en","DOI":"10.1787\/9b773da4-en"},{"key":"7_CR10","unstructured":"United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees: Ahead of the 4th Ukraine Recovery Conference, UNHCR shares new forecasting model and policy brief on future returns of Ukrainian refugees. UNHCR Ukraine Press Release (2025). https:\/\/www.unhcr.org\/ua\/en\/news\/press-releases\/ahead-4th-ukraine-recovery-conference-unhcr-shares-new-forecasting-model-and. Accessed 16 Feb 2026"},{"key":"7_CR11","unstructured":"Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, UNHCR: Joint briefing for the diplomatic community: Forecasting refugee returns and implications for Ukraine\u2019s recovery (2026). https:\/\/mfa.gov.ua\/en\/news\/mzs-ta-uvkb-oon-proveli-spilnij-brifing-dlya-diplomatichnogo-korpusu"},{"key":"7_CR12","unstructured":"Mankins, J.C.: Technology readiness levels (1995)"},{"key":"7_CR13","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"2251","DOI":"10.1016\/j.procs.2016.05.400","volume":"80","author":"D Groen","year":"2016","unstructured":"Groen, D.: Simulating refugee movements: where would you go? Procedia Comput. Sci. 80, 2251\u20132255 (2016)","journal-title":"Procedia Comput. Sci."},{"issue":"1","key":"7_CR14","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","first-page":"87","DOI":"10.1353\/hrq.2025.a951573","volume":"47","author":"M Tschal\u00e4r","year":"2025","unstructured":"Tschal\u00e4r, M., Xanthaki, A., Xanthopoulou, E.: Human rights risks of migration flow predictions and policy implications within the EU. Hum. Rights Q. 47(1), 87\u2013114 (2025)","journal-title":"Hum. Rights Q."},{"key":"7_CR15","doi-asserted-by":"publisher","unstructured":"Groen, D., Harbach, L.M.: On qualitative uncertainty in modelling assumptions. J. Comput. Sci. 94, 102782 (2026). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jocs.2025.102782","DOI":"10.1016\/j.jocs.2025.102782"}],"container-title":["Lecture Notes in Computer Science","Computational Science \u2013 ICCS 2026 Workshops"],"original-title":[],"language":"en","link":[{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/content\/pdf\/10.1007\/978-3-032-29909-3_7","content-type":"unspecified","content-version":"vor","intended-application":"similarity-checking"}],"deposited":{"date-parts":[[2026,6,27]],"date-time":"2026-06-27T03:28:10Z","timestamp":1782530890000},"score":1,"resource":{"primary":{"URL":"https:\/\/link.springer.com\/10.1007\/978-3-032-29909-3_7"}},"subtitle":[],"short-title":[],"issued":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"ISBN":["9783032299086","9783032299093"],"references-count":15,"URL":"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/978-3-032-29909-3_7","relation":{},"ISSN":["0302-9743","1611-3349"],"issn-type":[{"value":"0302-9743","type":"print"},{"value":"1611-3349","type":"electronic"}],"subject":[],"published":{"date-parts":[[2026]]},"assertion":[{"value":"28 June 2026","order":1,"name":"first_online","label":"First Online","group":{"name":"ChapterHistory","label":"Chapter History"}},{"value":"The authors have no competing interests to declare.","order":1,"name":"Ethics","group":{"name":"EthicsHeading","label":"Disclosure of Interests"}},{"value":"ICCS","order":1,"name":"conference_acronym","label":"Conference Acronym","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"International Conference on Computational Science","order":2,"name":"conference_name","label":"Conference Name","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"Hamburg","order":3,"name":"conference_city","label":"Conference City","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"Germany","order":4,"name":"conference_country","label":"Conference Country","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"2026","order":5,"name":"conference_year","label":"Conference Year","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"29 June 2026","order":7,"name":"conference_start_date","label":"Conference Start Date","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"1 July 2026","order":8,"name":"conference_end_date","label":"Conference End Date","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"26","order":9,"name":"conference_number","label":"Conference Number","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"iccs-computsci2026","order":10,"name":"conference_id","label":"Conference ID","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}},{"value":"https:\/\/www.iccs-meeting.org\/iccs2026\/","order":11,"name":"conference_url","label":"Conference URL","group":{"name":"ConferenceInfo","label":"Conference Information"}}]}}